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Editor's Note: James Cramer's writings run exclusively on; this is a special free look at his column, which was originally published Dec. 17. For a free trial subscription to, where you can see Jim's commentary regularly, please click here.

We keep waiting and hoping for something to happen that will break the up and down cycle we've had. We keep looking for business to turn up or for orders to get stronger or for companies like

General Electric

(GE) - Get Free Report

to signal that things have gotten better.

And who can blame us? We are about to finish our third straight down year. A fourth will put us on par with the four years that preceded the Great Depression.

My partner on


"Kudlow & Cramer," Larry Kudlow, likes to be upbeat. He sees aggregate economic data that point to an up year.

I, on the other hand, am stuck with industry groups and the bottoms-up approach I was taught. When I look up from the bottoms, I can't see where the big turn will occur.

In preparation for the next year, let's take a look at the major industry groups that make up the stock market so I can show you why I believe that any recovery will be anemic, causing us to default to individual issues on a case-by-case basis rather than the market as a whole. Mind you, that doesn't mean that we could be in a situation where you can't make money in the market, but it does mean that making money will be based on shrewd stock-picking and not powered by a backdrop of economic growth.

To find out what Cramer sees in 2003 for 11 market sectors, please click here for a free trial to RealMoney. Once you sign up, you can read the rest of his column here -- and also access all of our premium content.

James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of He contributes daily market commentary for's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for and, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made.

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