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We keep waiting and hoping for something to happen that will break the up and down cycle we've had. We keep looking for business to turn up or for orders to get stronger or for companies like

General Electric

(GE) - Get Report

to signal that things have gotten better.

And who can blame us? We are about to finish our third straight down year. A fourth will put us on par with the four years that preceded the Great Depression.

My partner on

CNBC's

"Kudlow & Cramer," Larry Kudlow, likes to be upbeat. He sees aggregate economic data that point to an up year.

I, on the other hand, am stuck with industry groups and the bottoms-up approach I was taught. When I look up from the bottoms, I can't see where the big turn will occur.

In preparation for the next year, let's take a look at the major industry groups that make up the stock market so I can show you why I believe that any recovery will be anemic, causing us to default to individual issues on a case-by-case basis rather than the market as a whole. Mind you, that doesn't mean that we could be in a situation where you can't make money in the market, but it does mean that making money will be based on shrewd stock-picking and not powered by a backdrop of economic growth.

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James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made.

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