Anything but MonDayne:
Another view from TheStreet:
Checked back in this morning with Scott Turkel of
in Connecticut, whose hedge fund has been holding a "significant" amount of cash lately. (His observations are as refreshing, provocative and insightful as
, but he does what he does
than Cramer, which is why his name has been mentioned here frequently in recent weeks.)
What I wanted to know this time was whether he's
pouring it into the market. His answer: aside from a few trades here and there -- no. "I'm calling companies and trying to get an edge," he says.
Unlike Cramer, who trades based on momentum, opportunity and fundamentals, Turkel focuses almost exclusively on technicals and fundamentals. Just as important as what he did today is how he got prepared for today, which is doing what he does every Sunday: He went to his office (after a game of basketball with pals and breakfast at home with his kids) for some quiet research time.
Usually he uses the time to catch up on his reading and review charts. "I don't think you can come in Monday morning without being prepared," Turkel says. Sunday is perfect, because "the machine is turned off, so the emotionality of making a decision is removed. You can't make decisions emotionally -- at least not good ones." Yesterday, however, Turkel focused on historical charts of companies like
, which he doesn't currently own, "to see where I really want to own Intuit" and other companies on what he calls his "best franchise list." (Noticeably absent from that list are the likes of
, because he doesn't think they can double or triple from current levels.)
Based on what he read Sunday, he did a few small, short-term trades this morning, but nothing more. Beyond that, Turkel still has no conviction in the market, which is why he's not making a big commitment of capital. "I'm not going to grope until I see a trend, and then it won't be groping," he says. "Groping is very dangerous, even with a little money." Turkel adds that he isn't quite sure when we'll see a trend or how long it will take to develop. "Maybe a week or two," he says. "The discipline of my model will tell me when to be invested."
But what if the market is off to the races and he missed the bottom? "If I miss the bottom, I'll still have an entry in," he insists. "I'm confused," he adds, "and when in doubt you should do nothing. That usually works for me."
At least mine on our
show over the weekend was that the
would hit 3225 this week. (That would be 36% off its all-time high; that's my definition of a crash, because the Dow fell 36% from top to bottom in 1987.)
Early today, the Nasdaq was as low as 3227. But my benchmark stock for excesses in this market,
Lernout & Hauspie
, is still riding high (albeit lower than it
been). When companies like Lernout with big short positions finally get down to realistic levels, then the froth will be gone.
In the case of Lernout, more "realistic" levels means around 40, which is where it was before it started its big irrational runup. Short-sellers, however, think that would still be considerably above its true value. But the only value that counts for this column's Predict-o-Meter is the price immediately before a run-up.
Herb Greenberg writes daily for TheStreet.com. In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, he doesn't own or short individual stocks, though he owns stock in TheStreet.com. He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. He welcomes your feedback at
email@example.com. Greenberg also writes a monthly column for Fortune.
Mark Martinez assisted with the reporting of this column.