It's going to be tough to please the hedge funds here. As much as the economy needs to see a half-point, because the consumer and the corporate buyers need to spend more and because earnings are going to fall short again without it, the hedge funds want blood here.
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All day today I saw hedge funds covering shorts and getting ready to put them out all over again because they are so certain that the second quarter is shaping up poorly. Even if we get a 50-basis-point cut
a good statement from the
, I think these hedge funds will want to press the bear bet. Anything less than that, and the market could get hit pretty hard.
But if we get 50 basis points and a good statement, I really want to take the other side of the hedgies and do some buying if they knock it down. In that situation, rates will keep coming down, earnings will eventually get better and cash will be trash, instead of king, as it still seems to be these days.
Just to review: Why do we need the cuts?
- Corporations aren't spending; you saw that slow industrial production number today.
Individuals are going to get skittish about spending with another weak employment number coming up.
Earnings are anemic and
may not be bottoming.
Until all three of these conditions change, we want cuts and we want them fast and furious.
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James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column to