This column was originally published on RealMoney on Feb. 16 at 3:05 p.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers.
So I get it.
worth only 40 times next year's $8 number. It's only worth 36 times 2007's $9 number.
That's the math, bears and bulls. That's what you are looking at after all the click fraud and the Justice Department head and the rates that are allegedly too high and all of the new gizmos coming onstream that are so terrific.
No matter that I actually believe that Google can earn $9 this year and $11 next year. Nor does it matter that I believe click fraud is a minor issue, that the Justice Department is, in the end, owned of, by and for corporations -- including Google -- or that I believe the rates are just right and there are plenty of companies willing to pay. Nor does it matter that I believe the most exciting stuff coming from Google is the virtual elimination of the Yellow Pages as an entity. Nah, the bears have it down pat. We certainly should want to pay less than for a
or even an
, for that matter, for this 30%-plus grower.
I listen to the logic, I hear what the bears are saying, but I keep coming back to the bizarre notion that there is some price to be paid for owning Google and it is a price that has to be in excess of all of those fine firms because, even with the haircut mentioned -- one that I am fairly confident will never happen, but so what -- we still have a stock that deserves to be
, not lower. Remember, you must always put yourself in the heads of the portfolio managers who simply must make a decision about buying or selling a $100 billion stock, particularly one so likely to be added to the
Believe me, most of these managers don't want to be involved. It's a pain to trade. The bears own the media on this stock, including the major news organizations away from business, and Eric Schmidt, the guy who runs it day-to-day has a lineage that lacks any substance:
But valued it will be, and valued by only what the PMs know how to value: relative growth.
So bears, do a
on this -- which means, lay all over it with short stock until people get beleaguered. I believe you should declare victory and cover because I don't believe the stock's going to see $300 anytime soon, because those multiples on those earnings simply make no sense vs. the rest of the high-growth universe.
Or, you can invest like Mssrs. Abelson and Hickey and just say, "Investors be damned!" Never worked for me as a strategy, but then again, I was a lowly hedge fund manager, not a writer of big-time articles or a source for them.
I continue to be impressed with the quality of the Breakout Stocks names from Will Gabrielsi and Michael Comeau. Maybe that's because any time I go online -- weekends, nights, whatever -- I see them online doing research, original research. It's hedge fund quality without the hedge fund fees!
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At the time of publication, Cramer was long Sears Holdings.
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