You know why bears hibernate in the winter? Cause of deals like
. Takeovers like this one take the food right off the bear's table. They might as well sleep through the season.
I know I was tempted. An online community? What the heck is that? The only thing that kept me from putting this one out was a project on India that my daughter and I worked on. We got all the answers from GeoCities' India site. That homework saved me a fortune!
Whenever you are thinking of shorting a craze or a mania, remember: There are others in the craze who don't think like you. Some of the ones who don't happen to be at the top of the companies that are being rocketed by the craze. The illogic of GeoCities as a business doesn't occur to Yahoo!'s president! The president of Yahoo! wants eyeballs. He's got advertisers to satisfy, and they want eyeballs. The Yahoo! guy sees GeoCities as a form of programming that he needs.
Of course none of this would matter if the Yahoo! guy didn't have a currency. But he's got currency galore. The market gave it to him. And that is enough to create an awful lot of havoc for the nonbelievers. That's another reason why I never short on valuation. I never make a judgment that, hey, from the looks of things, this GeoCities won't make any money for some time, yet its stock keeps going up. I am going to bet against it.
That's logic for morons. That's logic that says unless it has bricks and mortar and book value like a
, it is overvalued.
Yahoo! doesn't think like that. On days like today, for those betting against GeoCities, that's all that matters.
No flies on that
quarter, and yes, I am long it. At least the four hundred caveats that the
usually puts in about any AOL story got cut out this time. Maybe the writer and the editor read
! I know the editorial guys do. Yesterday's slamjob on me was met with an immediate response on their desks, by 9 a.m., so they couldn't claim that they did not have enough time to put it in today.
But the dead-tree folk never play fair. It was like pulling teeth to get them to acknowledge they even received my response. As for when it will be printed? Give me a break. I could sooner find out from the old Kremlin hacks than from these guys. And I am no
However, my Dad liked the line drawing and immediately suggested that I call
and get it to replace my photo mug in
. Oh yeah, another dead-tree type of thing. A few days ago someone from the
called to ask me for my picture. We asked why. None of your business, they said. Hoo-hah! You have to love the arrogance of the dead-tree people! I bet those horse-and-carriage people were just as arrogant about the motor-car types one hundred years ago. Very unbecoming, I think.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At the time of publication, his fund was long Yahoo! and America Online, though positions may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column by sending a letter to TheStreet.com.