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Writing His Market Thesis

Sometimes it's hard to figure out the market. Like today. But Cramer gives it a shot, and sees something in PC makers.
Author:

Chaotic day, wasn't it? Something confused, almost, and inconsistent, but I couldn't get my arms around it. The old-tech names performed quite well, but the new-tech names ran into some profit-taking after a big streak. I thought the profit-taking came from people who anticipated tomorrow's profit-taking and acted on it today.

I hate to be confused about any session. I like to have a thesis in place by midmorning that can explain the action. The only one I saw today was a belief, aided by ancedotal evidence, that the personal-computer business has gotten incrementally better.

Compaq

(CPQ)

and

Dell

(DELL) - Get Report

were strong, and we added to our position in the latter and bought the former.

Intel

(INTC) - Get Report

remains strong. And we even detected some spring in

Microsoft's

(MSFT) - Get Report

step. Microsoft has been a straight line down during this great

TST Recommends

NDX

rally and it would be interesting to see what happens if that stock gets any traction from a solid rollout of Windows 2000.

As usual, despite the billions that are pouring into the tech and high-growth mutual funds, there is not enough money put to work in any one session that allows all of tech to ramp. How often has Dell gone down or done nothing in the same session that

Yahoo!

(YHOO)

ramped or

PMC Sierra

(PMC)

rallied?

I do think this move might have some legs, though. The valuations, while stretched, still allow for all but the most valued of managers to play.

Frankly, it was a pleasure to be able to buy some stocks 25,000 shares at a time. Most of these other stocks are strictly 2,500 and work -- meaning, the brokers will sell you 2,500 shares on the wire but then you will have to buy the rest over time. Usually it is impossible as the floats are small, the sellers nonexistent and the supply scarce.

Unless they are no good. There's always plenty of supply of the losers. Despite the many changes this market has undergone, that sure hasn't changed.

James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund was long Compaq, Intel, Yahoo!, Microsoft and Dell. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at

jjcletters@thestreet.com.