Winnie the Pooh Bear Wins This One

Things looked ugly on Friday, and the trader eats his hat.
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Not a lot of lift. Like none. Looks like the W goes to the Bears in this session. In fact, it is even uglier than the numbers indicated. Of the 695 odd issues that are up today, almost all of them represent companies that ramp only during inflation bouts.

All sorts of commodity cyclicals, boring white-paper companies, bag companies, polyethylene companies shrugged off the sell programs and took off.

That's a real ursine picture. Not that we should expect the drugs or the financials to rally, but when

International Paper

(IP) - Get Report

jumps a half and

Georgia Peach

(GP)

romps five, we have to dust off the biscuits and canned water and get underneath the buildings for a while.

Our take:

Winnie the Pooh

Bear is in charge until Tuesday afternoon. But come Tuesday Winnie might turn into a Kodiak. If the

Fed

doesn't indicate resolve, people will presume they are wimps. If the Fed indicates too much resolve, what's the point of owning stocks, knowing the Fed is going to brake the economy?

What's possible, of course, is that the Fed does whatever is necessary to keep everything going just fine, thank you.

I know that sounds virtually impossible, but the impossible has been done so many times by

Greenspan

, that it can't be ruled out.

In the meantime, I am donning a mask, which looks suspiciously like a paper shopping bag that fans wear to root for crummy teams, for my unrequited bond trade. And I guess I get to

eat a hat of

Padinha's

choice.

James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund had no positions in any stocks mentioned. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at

letters@thestreet.com.