The S&P 500'sI:GSPC rally from its Feb. 11 low near 1810 is showing signs of stalling. So far, the bears have been in control on two tests of the of the 1940-1950 area. That area follows a breakdown from head-and-shoulders top that can be seen in the weekly chart below.
The same fundamental issues that hurt stocks during the S&P 500's selloff from around 2080 in late December are plaguing them again. Oil prices are moving lower, and bank stocks looked weak during Tuesday's session.
Chart composed by The Informed Trader, courtesy of Stockcharts.
That head-and-shoulders top pattern remains in place. If it continues to play out, the S&P 500 likely will target the 1600s. Investors must keep a close eye on the crucial 1940-1950 breakdown area. The index would have to take out this level in a convincing fashion to negate the head-and-shoulders top.
Next, lets take a look at the daily chart:
Chart composed by The Informed Trader, courtesy of Stockcharts
The daily chart shows recent support and resistance levels in greater detail. The S&P 500 has been navigating the 1810-1950 range over the past month. Note the confluence of resistance that comes into play in the 1940-1950 area. This is the area that ended the index's rally in late January. The declining 50-day exponential moving average and the 50% retracement area are in play here. So far the bears have held the line here. If the 20-day EMA breaks, the bulls will scatter again.
After playing a bounce up last week at The Informed Trader, we took profits and moved to a 100% cash position early this week. We want to see what the S&P 500 does at this very important resistance area before we make our next move.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.