NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Expectations are low for Owens-Illinois(OI) - Get Report , which reports fourth-quarter and full-year earnings results Monday after the closing bell. The stock has a consensus hold rating and the company, based in Perrysburg, Ohio, is projected to grow earnings at only a 3% annual rate for the next five years.
The company manufactures glass containers primarily for the food and beverage industries in Europe, North America, South America, and the Asia Pacific region. For some context, companies that operate in similar industries, like Graphic Packaging(GPK) - Get Report and Bemis Company(BMS) - Get Report , are projected to grow at annual rates of 25% and 9%, respectively, over the next five years, according to CNN Money.
Owens-Illinois stock closed Friday at $23.35, up 1.3%. But the stock is down roughy 13.49% on the year to date, trailing both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and the S&P 500 (SPX) , which are down 3.69% and 3.10%, respectively. And over the trailing 12 months, Owens-Illinois has lost 28% of its value. Take a look at the chart.
Despite the punishment the stock has taken, these shares may still have room to fall. This is because at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 30.42, Owens' shares are still not cheap. Owens' P/E is seven percentage points higher than Bemis Company's, which is 23.44. And Bemis' stock is up more than 17% this year already. Also, Owens' P/E is 13 percentage points higher than the average P/E of companies in the S&P 500, according to The Wall Street Journal.
In other words, the company must shatter both earnings expectations and guidance Monday to remind investors why they should be patient. And even then it may not be enough.
Analysts expect the company to report 46 cents per share for the quarter ending in December. That's down 10% from the 51 cents per share earned last year. Revenue for the quarter, is projected to be $1.65 billion, suggesting a 6% year-over-year decline from last year's revenue of $1.76 billion. For the full year, Owens is projected to earn $2.62 per share on revenue of $6.82 billion, representing year-over-year declines of 3% and 2%, respectively.
For these shares to make sense at such a high P/E, Owens-Illinois needs to establish a track record as a company with consistent executions. It hasn't done that. Earnings per share in its third quarter (announced in October) declined 5% year over year to 75 cents per share. And this was with better-than-expected demand in South America and Europe. It was not enough to offset declines in North America and Asia Pacific.
To that end, with the prospect of the strong U.S. dollar posing as a potential headwind this quarter, investors should stay away from this stock, which pays no dividend -- unless Owens shatters guidance.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.