Why Microsoft, Intel Differ on PC Sales
It just doesn't make sense:
Microsoft
(MSFT) - Get Free Report
gripes that corporate PC sales are softening, and
Intel
(INTC) - Get Free Report
claims PC demand is so great it can't make chips fast enough. (Puzzling, I say, damn puzzling.)
How can that be?
Simple, says Mike Kelly, who runs
Techtel
, an Emeryville, Calif., market-research firm that has been tracking PC purchasing data for 15 years: They're both dealing with different ends of the distribution pipeline. "Microsoft is looking at shipments to OEMs
original equipment manufacturers, whereas Intel is looking at orders from OEMs," Kelly says. The result, he says, is that while shipments from OEMs may be falling, Intel wouldn't necessarily know because there's a normal lag of several weeks before a slowdown in shipments translates into a cutback in orders.
But that doesn't necessarily mean there
will
be a cutback in orders. Kelly, who has proven to
this column to be a good read of the PC industry, says he believes the current slowdown (which his surveys have confirmed is real) will be short-lived. His surveys of PC buying by companies with 250 or more employees show that purchases over the past two quarters were indeed flat, after rising for the prior two quarters. Kelly attributes that to Y2K-related issues.
However, while demand hasn't been there, interest in buying new computers has been rising "steadily and strongly" for five quarters. And interest, he says, almost always translates into future orders. "That indicates latent demand," he says, "which means sales will recover."
Notable quotable: According to Kelly, interest is especially high for purchases of
Compaq
undefined
,
Hewlett-Packard
undefined
and
IBM
(IBM) - Get Free Report
machines.
Short Positions
Ancor's away:
The stock of
Ancor Communications
undefined
leaped 66% yesterday after the company announced it won a contract to supply its fiber channel switches to
EMC
(EMC)
.
TSC/NYTimes
reporter Kevin Max
quoted one analyst as saying the stock had risen so much because short-sellers were covering. Maybe some are, but not those who have steadily been quoted in this column as questioning the quality of Ancor's biz.
What the shorts found so intriguing yesterday was that while Ancor won some biz with EMC, so did Ancor's archrival
Brocade
(BRCD)
. And according to what an EMC spokesman told my assistant, Mark Martinez, one of the reasons EMC took Ancor in addition to Brocade is to give customers a choice. And
that
, my friends, was worth nearly $400 million in additional market cap.
Some Transaction!:
Transaction Systems Architects
undefined
,
no stranger to this column, reported dismal earnings Tuesday after the market closed. That's what sometimes happens to companies with revenue recognition issues, just like those mentioned
here earlier involving Transaction.
Herb Greenberg writes daily for TheStreet.com. In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, he doesn't own or short individual stocks, though he owns stock in TheStreet.com. He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. He welcomes your feedback at
herb@thestreet.com. Greenberg also writes a monthly column for Fortune.
Mark Martinez assisted with the reporting of this column.
