Why Is the Smart Money so Wrong This Year?

The dollar? It is soaring. The bonds look great. The S&P futures are smoking. The gloom? It is gone.
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Why is the smart money so

wrong

this year? On Friday, we were all worried about a strong

tankan

report out of Japan. A strong report would rock the dollar and the bonds, the smart money said. We would come in and be down from the get-go.

Sure enough, the tankan survey was hot -- very hot. Japan's coming back. (No kidding. Its market is up 50% this year when the currency gets factored in.)

The dollar? It is soaring. The bonds? They look great. The

S&P

futures? They are smoking. The gloom? It is gone. The stocks? They are up.

For as long as I have been in the business, there have been commentators who have tried to present order where there is no order. They want to be able to say that the bonds march to this tune or that tune. It just doesn't work that way.

Those who shorted the market last week because of the tankan and

Dell

(DELL) - Get Report

and the

Hewlett-Packard

(HWP)

shortfall won't make a dime today. Which is a reminder, a constant reminder that this market is as humbling as it gets and those who would tell you they know what is about to happen are just

mountebanks

, hoping to get some commission from you.

Remember that as you trade and invest today.

Random musings

: Those who bought

Policy Management Systems

(PMS)

off the vague takeover rumors get spanked today on the fundamentals. Takeover is such a tough game to play, as the

Revlon

(REV) - Get Report

shareholders certainly know. Has anyone, other than lawyers, ever made any money betting with

Ron Perelman

from Revlon? Email me if you have.

Mattel and The Learning Co.: Tell us what you think on

TSC

Message Boards.

Hoo-hah! ... How can

Jill Barad

keep her job at

Mattel

(MAT) - Get Report

? What is that board thinking? ... Which call will

Maria Bartiromo

take to the moon at 9:27 during her "Squawk"? I have my fingers crossed that she does the

J.P. Morgan

(JPM) - Get Report

cosmetics call, but she doesn't have good sources at that firm. So it will probably come down to hyping the

Merrill Lynch

(MER)

call, which she always gets. Good, I am long some Hewlett-Packard calls ...

Barron's

slams

Intel

(INTC) - Get Report

. Ooohh -- really

scary

! First time I ever read that one (yawn).

James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund was long Hewlett-Packard and Intel. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at

jjcletters@thestreet.com.