Which Oil Tanker Stock Will Outperform? - TheStreet

Which Oil Tanker Stock Will Outperform?

Oil tankers stocks are suddenly hot. Which wet-trade shipping company will see its shares outperform its peers in the first half of 2010?
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NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Oil-tanker stocks have been a hot commodity of late.

Share prices in the so-called "wet" sector of the merchant shipping business have climbed sharply since 2010 dawned two weeks ago. Several short-term factors have prompted the rally.

Cold, inclement weather has both lifted demand for heating oil in the Northern Hemisphere and roughened seas, delaying shipments and thus reducing the supply of vessels on the market.

In the Bosphorus -- a key oil-transport artery that flows through Istanbul and, with the Dardanelles, links the Black Sea and the Mediterranean -- weather has disrupted transport so much that the ships have stacked up, creating delays of six days in one direction and eight days in the other.

Shares of

Frontline

(FRO) - Get Report

, the biggest of the U.S.-listed tanker companies by market cap, have soared 23% since New Year's Eve, outperforming its peers. Shares of

General Maritime

(GMR)

, meanwhile, have risen 18.7% since Dec. 31,

Overseas Shipholding

(OSG) - Get Report

16%,

Ship Financial

(SFL) - Get Report

15%,

Teekay

(TK) - Get Report

13.7%, and

Nordic American Tanker

(NAT) - Get Report

12.4%.

Though the supply-demand balance hasn't tilted out of whack, observers say, the current environment favors the ship-owner rather than the oil company. Why? An owner who decides to play hardball in negotiations with a charterer may lose out on, say $50,000 each day he stalls for a higher rate, explained Mike Reardon, a vice president at Imarex, an Oslo-based maritime derivatives exchange. "But if a charterer misses a ship, he may have to shut down a refinery. The pain is asymmetric."

Several investment firms have come out with

bullish calls on the tanker business

in the last week or so, including Jeffries & Co. and Dahlman Rose (which may prompt other sell-side analysts to make similar statements projecting upward moves in tanker stock prices). This, along with a brightening near-term outlook, may have also caused a short squeeze among shares in the sector, sharpening the recent rally.

At least one indicator suggests that, sooner rather than later, tanker rates will decline. Current prices for forward freight agreements, or FFAs, suggest that the average tanker rate for 2010 will come to $36,000 a day. (Ship owners use FFAs, which are similar to futures contracts, as a hedge; thus, FFA prices are considered a kind of smart-money forecast.) The rate suggested by the current FFA contract prices stands in opposition to some of the more bullish Wall Street views. Omar Nokta of Dahlman Rose aexpects an average 2010 rate of $50,000.

With all this in mind, we ask readers of

TheStreet

: Which oil tanker company's stock will outperform the field in the first half of 2010?

-- Written by Scott Eden in New York

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Scott Eden has covered business -- both large and small -- for more than a decade. Prior to joining TheStreet.com, he worked as a features reporter for Dealmaker and Trader Monthly magazines. Before that, he wrote for the Chicago Reader, that city's weekly paper. Early in his career, he was a staff reporter at the Dow Jones News Service. His reporting has appeared in The Wall Street Journal, Men's Journal, the St. Petersburg (Fla.) Times, and the Believer magazine, among other publications. He's also the author of Touchdown Jesus (Simon & Schuster, 2005), a nonfiction book about Notre Dame football fans and the business and politics of big-time college sports. He has degrees from Notre Dame and Washington University in St. Louis.