When Bonds and Financials Aren't on the Same Page

Ah, come on, one of you two jokers is wild. Either the bonds are the real thing or the financials are the real thing -- but not both.

Yes, it is one of those times that occurs every so often when stocks are signaling that rates are going to come down while bonds are singing a totally different tune. My work simply won't let me reach a conclusion. I just came from an hour-long

Alcoa

(AA) - Get Report

presentation and, believe me, not only is there no inflation, there is positively anti-inflation.

(I am very long Alcoa and the presentation was solid, but you have to believe in management, which I do, to own this one because I see no upside in general for the metals. In fact, Alcoa is very realistically betting that aluminum isn't going up at all, even though it sees more and more autos made of aluminum. In fact, Alcoa could end up being a President

Al Gore

play, like there is any doubt on that one, as aluminum actually pays its own way in recycling, the only commodity that does. If you "take" Alcoa because of that, bad luck to you.)

I keep coming back to the oddity of the utilities down four and the bank index, the BKX, up 9. Or the idea that the brokers are ramping but the drugs are getting clubbed.

Making matters tougher, it's the first day of the month and volume is incredibly light.

Where the heck is everybody?

Of course, all of this cuts back to the piece I wrote this weekend about the unemployment number and how the media was going to make a big deal of this all week, despite

Greenspan's

testimony saying the two don't easily relate any more. (My solution -- just get the employment consensus to be 500,000 jobs and then say that it was "disappointing and light" when it comes in at 400,000!)

So, it looks like the handsitters are back. Nobody is going to make a judgment until the end of the week, and we are really back in that ridiculous do-nothing mode.

More time for conference calls and meetings.

Random musings:

Gee, I get some stupid mail. One guy asks why I listen to conference calls, they don't tell you anything. Another guy says that I am wasting my time doing anything but thinking about

Y2K

. I don't know, I can't quit on what's worked for me for 20 years: homework. I like it. Call me a nerd.

James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At the time of publication, the fund was long Alcoa, though positions can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column by sending an email to letters@thestreet.com.