If the only thing the market has going for it is how negative everyone is, is that enough for an investable rally?
No. No. No.
Maybe I am not being clear enough.
I keep hearing this same refrain. There is so much pessimism. There are so few bulls. There are so many people who dislike it. Give me a break!! Read
interview this weekend. Other than the people who have been forced out of this market by margin requirements, most people haven't sold. They haven't capitulated. You could feel the hope creep in this morning when London jumped. I am sure that it can run. We think it can run a percent without a problem. But that doesn't make it investable. Tradeable, but not investable. Here is what will make it investable:
- Several months of slower data.
An end to the tightenings.
Better owners of stock than the holders-on we have now.
More supply taken out.
More cash takeovers.
Valuations that make stocks not easily raidable. (See yesterday's piece on
A realization that some selling has to occur and that the market can't be ridden out.
More pain than we have had, to the point where there are fewer than 40% bulls.
A realization that mutual funds are not "safe" instruments.
Massive declines in margin debt.
Until then, we will sell these rallies and redeploy money out of loved tech into stuff that gets hurt less by the constant ratcheting up of rates.
And we will sit with a mountain of cash and wait. And the
will pay us to wait. We are buying 10 million of the two-year note today. It yields 6.8%. That's a godsend.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund had no positions in any stocks mentioned. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at