Okay, I plead guilty to wanting to make hay when the sun shines. I wanted to capture this move without worrying about the
because the data -- save for oil -- could remove the Fed from the equation for a while.
Why, in itself, is that bullish? Because it forces people who have been on the fence to come in. It takes away their reason not to deploy their cash, particularly the cash that has been building during the July downturn. By buying today all I am doing is anticipating that other less certain, more ambivalent people will be determined to come in and buy tomorrow once the Fed is out of the way.
Once again I find myself out on a money management limb. You aren't supposed to ever admit that you are buying because you are anticipating buying by someone else less bold or sure than you. This is not supposed to be a game of Red Rover, with the fence sitters the last to come over.
It is supposed to be a valuation and analysis business. We are supposed to like stocks because they are cheap and will get less cheap. Or because we see value that the market doesn't see.
But in the world I am in, that is a total abstraction. My biggest hit today was in
, and that stock has gone from sublime to ridiculous in price in record time. All that's going on there is a couple of funds getting some stock in as if it were the last water fountain in the Mojave. Yet, that fatuous situation is how money can be made. If I had stopped and thought about value I would have taken down some
! That one just reeks of value!
Betting on the
today was simply a bet that more negative people will become positive tomorrow after the Fed does whatever the heck it is going to do.
I wanted to seize that bet while the window was still open. Nothing more. Glad I got all of that schooling and training about how to value stocks. It provides just the touch of irony that keeps me amused while I take the stocks I should, in a rational world, be selling!
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund was long Redback. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at