Weekend Reading: Malaise Continues
Good Sunday morning. Here are some articles and papers worthreading. First, however, a look back at the week that just finished,and a look forward at the week ahead.
The major markets were down again last week. The
Dow
and the
S&P 500
led the way down, losing 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, andthe
Nasdaq Composite
did marginally better, losing only 0.7%.
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Click here for the weekly performance.
The market's malaise persists, with its causes ranging from rising oil to falling consumer confidence. While things are not asbad on either front as you might expect given recent headlines, thatreally doesn't matter when you're dealing with sentiment -- and marketsentiment is currently more negative than it has been in a long time.Does that mean it is time we saw a bounce-back, even if a technicalone? Almost certainly, although it may yet be another week away. Thisweek looks set to start on a nasty note, with a good chunk of U.S.domestic oil supply set to take a shot to the solar plexus as Category5 Hurricane Katrina roars ashore midday Monday near New Orleans.
Turning to the economic week ahead, it is a busy one. The weekstarts with what will likely be weakened consumer confidence data, dueTuesday morning. Wednesday afternoon, we are due to get a preliminaryestimate for the second-quarter GDP. We have more data due Thursday on personal income and personal spending, both of which will bewatched closely, given the newfound nervousness about the health of theU.S. consumer.
Over on earnings, it will remain fairly, between-quarters quiet.Perhaps the most interesting reports will come from a number offoreign companies, including a spate of Chinese oil & gascompanies on Monday and Tuesday.
Finally, here are some articles and papers worth reading:
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- Katrina,strongest storm of U.S. season, bears down on U.S.Gulf oil supplies (Bloomberg)
- MaybeGoogle has already peaked (Cringely)
- Greenspan:U.S. house prices could fall (Reuters)
- The rising importance of personalizeddrug treatment ( BusinessWeek)
- BayouGroup hedge fund meltdown was presaged by suicide note (StamfordAdvocate)
- Two-thirdsof all U.S. housing market booms ended in a bust (Bloomberg)
- Barron's pans thematuring software market, picks Barnes & Noble and AmericanSafety (Barron's)
- MySpacethreatens MTV (New York Times)
- Interlockingbubbles: Rising U.S. house prices have helped insulate consumersfrom higher oil prices -- so far (Economist)
- Themost powerful people in economics: Wire service reporters (San Francisco Chronicle)
- "Peakoil" is the media's new version of shark attacks (Freakonomicsblog)
- Microsoftexecutives aren't buying the company's stock, but analysts are --who is right? (New York Times)
- Flatscreen TVs and DVD players (and piracy, maybe) are changing theeconomics of entertainment (New York Times)
- Research: Theeconomics of fraudulent accounting (NBER)
- Research: Predictability andvolatility in realized betas (Center for Financial Studies -- PDF)
- Research: Weather forecasts in theweather derivatives market (Center for Financial Studies -- PDF)
Dr. Paul Kedrosky is a former highly ranked sell-side technology equity analyst, and he currently runs a technology finance institute at the University of California, San Diego. He is also a venture partner with Ventures West, an institutional venture capital firm with more than $400-million under management. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. While Kedrosky cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he welcomes your feedback and invites you to send your comments to
pkedrosky@thestreet.com.
