Was this the capitulation low of the
? That's what many of you emailed me in the last few hours. I don't see it that way. Supply is killing the NDX, not earnings (although
plenty of pause about that today).
Let me go over this dilemma very specifically. The stocks that trade on the
New York Stock Exchange
don't have new supply coming out. In fact, they are probably going to be
of their stocks at this juncture. In fact, I would imagine that ex-the biggest New York Stock Exchange offerings, there has been a huge shrinkage in supply.
The buybacks in the big-caps have been ferocious, as one company management after another is just plain sick of where its stock is.
On the Nasdaq, however, supply has become a moving target. It seems to grow daily. The underwritings, far from being cancelled, are
. The Rule 144 insider filings are skyrocketing. The lockup expirations get greeted with avalanches of insider selling even at these levels.
At my core I am neither a chartist nor a fundamentalist. I am a psychologist of demand and supply. The
has no supply, the NDX has unlimited supply.
Hence the numbers you see on your screen. The direction of each changes only if the supply-and-demand equation changes.
(Many newbies ask me where I get these numbers. Supply numbers I get from the
. Demand numbers? I get those from my eyes and ears. I am a professional trader, trained to see this stuff. It is my edge. I try to write about my edge, but understand, it is what I do for a living, which is why it is expertise, not guesswork.)
You want to hear the following comments from your brokers right here: "We are pulling our offerings. The sellers don't want to sell here."
Unfortunately, many of the companies in the queue wouldn't exist without that possible cash infusion from the public. So they don't cancel. That's why it stays too heavy. That's why we are not out of the woods.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund had no positions in any stocks mentioned. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at