Verizon: Little Upside From Mobile Subscriber Gains

Trefis members don't see much upside in the stock from Verizon's mobile subscriber market gains.

Author:
Publish date:: Aug 19, 2010 1:35 PM EDT

In the past week, Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of

Verizon

stock: its share of monthly mobile subscribers and mobile subscriber plan pricing.

The forecasts suggest both drivers will trend roughly in line with the estimates of the in-house team of Trefis analysts. These projections have no significant impact on Verizon's stock.

Verizon competes with

AT&T

(T) - Get Report

and

Sprint Nextel

(S) - Get Report

in the mobile subscription plans business.

We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $33.14 for Verizon's stock, about 10% above the current market price of around $30.

Around 48% of Verizon's stock value can be attributed to its mobile plans and phones business. The stock is quite sensitive to Verizon's share of monthly mobile subscribers and its Mobile Subscriber Plan Pricing. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.

On average, Trefis member forecasts for Verizon Share of Monthly Mobile Subscribers predict an increase from 31.5% in 2010 to 35% by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 32% in 2010 to close to 36% by the end of the Trefis forecast period.

The member estimates imply a small upside to the Trefis price estimate for Verizon's stock. In the past, Verizon Share of Monthly Mobile Subscribers increased from around 25% in 2004 to 31% in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Verizon's stock to Verizon Share of Monthly Mobile Subscribers..

On average, Trefis members predict that Mobile Subscriber Plan Pricing will decrease from $34.40 per month in 2010 to $28.60 per month by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from $35.20 per month in 2010 to $29.30 per month by the end of the Trefis forecast period.

The member estimates imply a downside of 1% to the Trefis price estimate for Verizon's stock. In the past, Mobile Subscriber Plan Pricing decreased from $49 per month in 2004 to $37 per month in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Verizon's stock to Mobile Subscriber Plan Pricing.

Our

complete analysis for Verizon's stock is here

Trefis

is a financial community structured around trends, forecasts and insights related to some of the most popular stocks in the U.S.