Weak construction spending has caused a selloff in homebuilder stocks, sending the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) - Get Report down about 10% for the year to date. Among the bearishness, TPH, at $9.72 is down 23% for the year to date. Not good when your stock is down 38% for the past 52 weeks.
The Irvine, Calif.-based company has beaten Wall Street's earnings estimates in nine out of 11 quarters, and in the two reporting periods it didn't beat estimates the results were in line with the consensus. In the past three quarters, the company has delivered on its stated objectives, including higher home deliveries and growing profit margins.
But it's still a homebuilder stock. So if you like to gamble and see value in TPH, down about 41% from their 52-week high of $16.15, you should buy ahead of the Friday results in anticipation of an upward movement in the stock.
For the quarter that ended in December, analysts, on average, expect Tri Pointe to earn 46 cents a share on revenue of $841.29 million, marking year-over-year growth of 77% and 32%, respectively. For the fiscal year, earnings are projected to climb 108% higher to $1.21 a share, while revenue of $2.36 billion would mark a 38% year-over-year surge.
Both full-year profits and revenue are projected to climb at high double-digit rates, suggesting the decline in the stock has been an overreaction. The company continues to enjoy a solid backlog of home deliveries, while its average selling prices have trended higher. This combination creates higher profit margins.
In that vein, any panic selling that has taken place in TPH on fears of rising expenses seems overdone. These costs, driven by land and construction expense, can be offset with higher margins from home sales.
TPH has has a consensus buy rating and average analyst 12-month price target of $18, offering compelling value.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.