In the last year, shares of Under Armour (UA) - Get Report are down 19% to around $38. Short-sellers crushed the stock after Sports Authority filed for bankruptcy. Under Armour reports third-quarter results on Tuesday. Can UA get investors get back in the game?
Investors in Under Armour have had a difficult year, especially after that Sports Authority bankruptcy because the shorts thought UA's product sales would be hurt by the liquidation.
In addition, in the second quarter management said it would take an impairment charge of approximately $23 million related to the liquidation. Of the estimated $163 million worth of sales Under Amour expected to come from Sport Authority, management said it would only recognize $43 million of revenue, which means that Sports Authority was just 3% of Under Amour's revenue.
Under Armour cut full-year guidance by $75 million to $4.95 billion. The guidance assumes other retailers will pick up the slack from Sports Authority's bankruptcy as customers look for Under Amour at other outlets.
Even with the guidance cut, Under Armour is still expected to grow revenue by 24% in fiscal 2016.
But it's not just the Sport Authority liquidation that is weighing on the stock. Under Amour's inventory is out of control.
Inventory grew 44% in the first quarter and up 29.9% in the second quarter. Accounts receivable came down to 30.4% from 43% in the first quarter. Both inventory and accounts receivable are growing faster than revenue.
For the third quarter investors will be watching inventory and accounts receivable closely. If the company can demonstrate these items are under control, investors should begin to refocus on the company's revenue growth.
The consensus is forecasting earnings per share of 24 cents. Revenue is expected to be $1.45 billion, up 20%. Growth is coming from footwear (Stephen Curry shoe) and growing international markets, like China.
Management sees operating income in the range of $180 million to $185 million, representing 5% to 8% growth. Some investors felt guidance was disappointing, because they thought the company would bounce back faster after Sports Authority's liquidation. Last year, the third quarter grew by 28.4%.
The first half of the year grew 28.9%. With a lackluster third quarter, the pressure is on the fourth quarter. But the fourth quarter is only expected to grow 22%, which means it the back half is only going to be up 21%. That's a pretty steep slowdown when you compare 205 to 2016. The second half of 2015 grew 29.6%. Last year, fourth quarter revenue was up almost 31%. This year, the fourth quarter will probably be up just 22%.
Management typically gives next fiscal year guidance during the third quarter. The consensus is expecting 2017 revenue growth of 25.3% to $6.1 billion and earnings per share of 78 cents.
Fiscal 2014 booked 32% growth, and now the company is looking at 22% to 24% growth for fiscal 2017. It's hard to pay 48 times 2017 estimates (of 78 cents per share) for a company whose growth has slowed so dramatically.
I would sit on the bench and see how Under Armour's third quarter plays out.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.