In an uncertain market, look for opportunity in stocks and sectors that have been outperformers.
Shares of Tyson Foods (TSN) - Get Report , which produces and distributes chicken, beef and pork prepared food products, are up 100% relative to the S&P 500 index over the last three years and over 20% year-to-date.
The weekly chart includes a relative performance graph and shows that the stock pulling back off its May high and moving below its 10-week (50-day) moving average. It was able to bounce off the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the October 2015 breakout to May high rally range and move back up to retest the 10-week average. There is a notable difference in the price action this week between the stock and the S&P index, with both forming high wick candles but the latter closing near its low and the former in upper candle range.
On the daily timeframe, the positive technical action this month can be seen in greater detail. This week, the stock price broke above the April support-turned-resistance level, and equally important was Friday's slightly higher close against the downward gravitational pull of a major decline in the broader market. This is a strong indication of the stock's desire to hold the lows made earlier in the month and of the level of stored potential energy that could power a future move higher.
This dynamic is further confirmed by the relative strength index crossing above its 21-period average earlier in the month and above its centerline this week and by moving average convergence/divergence making a bullish crossover this week. The vortex indicator, which is designed to identify early shifts in trend, has made a green-over-red bullish crossover, reflecting the shift in direction off this month's low. Money flow has improved as evidenced by the accumulation/distribution line crossing over its signal average, and Chaikin money flow tracking higher after its low this month and advancing on its center line. This money flow confirmation is a major component of the reversal scenario and the positive volume bar, and the uptick in the accumulation/distribution reading indicates that there was buying interest in the stock after it opened lower on Friday, which reinforces the validity of the April low in the $62.20 area as support.
The stock market is still in a fragile state, and it is likely that the best performers will still have more to prove over the coming days. A second close above support in upper candle range would be required before Tyson Foods would become a long candidate, using a trailing percentage stop.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.