Twitter (TWTR) - Get Report might still be fundamentally challenged, but technically, the stock is no longer broken. At least, not to the extent it was previously. And with a bit of luck, the shares, which last week reclaimed their 20-day moving average, can begin to make up for lost ground. And it only needs to move about 3% higher to affirm this.
Shares of the social media company rose about 5% last week. But more importantly, the stock is up 10% since falling to its 52-week low last week at $13.73. Just as important, the shares closed Friday at their session high of $15.10 on above-average volume, a strong bullish signal. More than 28 million shares were traded, which is almost 30% above the stock's average daily volume of 22 million.
Still not convinced? As of the end of the first quarter, the market learned that several different funds increased their positions in Twitter or bought new stakes. These include Morgan Stanley (MS) - Get Report and Goldman Sachs (GS) - Get Report , which added 800,000 shares and 2.2 million shares, respectively, according to Nasdaq.
This combination of price action and volume suggests that my trade strategy, discussed a couple of weeks ago, was correct. The thesis was as follows:
"Buy TWTR at any price within $14, using $13.90 to $13.50 as near-term resistance. If it breaks below $13.50, exit the position with a loss and live to play again. The bet is within the next few weeks, the stock will fill the 16% gap back toward $17. Even if that threshold fails, the trade would still be profitable at $15.60, netting an 11% profit."
With TWTR stock now at $15.10, a move toward $17, which is just $1 below its consensus 12-month price target, would translate to 12.5% gains. The bet is that all of the bad news about the company is likely finished. And anyone who wanted to sell their shares since the company's IPO has likely already done so. In my view, the stock looks ready to move higher, especially following its 10% move last week from its 52-week low. Take a look at the chart, courtesy of TradingView.
After reclaiming its 20-day average at $14.38 (blue line), the stock is in better shape. At $15.10, the stock needs only to move 3% higher, or 50 cents, to interrupt near-term resistance at $15.60 (gray line), which will then put the share at their 50-day average of $15.71 (pink line). At that point, the share will have a clear path to $17, where the stock will, by then, fill the gap created from its weak first-quarter earnings. In other words, my thesis continues to play out. If you own the shares, be patient. If you don't, get in now.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.