Most of the
watchers watch the bond market to tell them what
is saying. The bond market is watching the Fed watchers. Whoever gets off to the fastest start wins.
I like to read
The Washington Post
instead. Berry makes it clear in his column this morning that Greenspan does not want to raise short-term rates and that yesterday's speech, which triggered an incredibly nasty bond selloff, may have been interpreted incorrectly.
As I am long bonds (bought at an average of 92 and change yesterday), you could say I am just justifying my position, but I have to tell you that if Berry said what everybody else said, that the Fed chairman has changed his stance and wants to raise rates, possibly as soon as 12 days from now, I would bolt from my bonds right now rather than write this piece.
Of course, all is moot with the wrong number at 8:30 a.m. Maybe my confidence in Berry -- and therefore my long position -- is misplaced.
The beauty of the Net and this column (or the ugliness) is that we won't have to wait long to find out -- and you will see my reaction on national TV from "Squawk" in Williamsburg less than an hour from now!
The cyclical trend is so deeply entrenched now that I don't think a really soft number will rock these stocks, but I want to buy financials on a benign number and average up on the cyclicals on a strong one.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at