NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The stock market is not cheap as 68.6% of all stocks are overvalued according to www.ValuEngine.com. In addition, 30.5% of all stocks are overvalued by 20% or more. We still show that 15 of 16 sectors are overvalued, 12 by double-digit percentages.
The major reason for maintaining the valuation warning is the rise in the yield of the 30-Year U.S. Treasury bond which increased by 30 basis points last week to 3.60%, a level not seen since September 2011.
Technically, last week ended with four of the five major averages having negative weekly chart profiles. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic readings ended the week at; 74.07 vs. 82.40 last week for the
industrials, 73.13 vs. 80.38 last week for the
, 80.27 vs. 85.28 on the
, 68.96 vs. 75.23 on Dow transports, and 78.99 vs. 82.73 last week for the Russell 2000. All readings need to be declining below 80.00 to have simultaneous negative weekly chart profiles.
The stochastic reading for the Nasdaq will be declining this week, thus all major averages will have negative weekly chart profiles given closes this week below the five-week modified moving averages at 14,988 Dow, 1615.6 S&P 500, 3395 Nasdaq, 6259 Dow transports, and 970.32 on the Russell 2000.
Negative weekly closes will confirm that the May 20/May 22 as cycle highs at; 5,542.40 Dow, 1687.18 S&P 500, 3532.04 Nasdaq, 6568.41 Dow transports and 1008.23 Russell 2000.
This week's closes are also monthly closes, quarterly closes and semiannual closes, which are projected to result in new quarterly value levels with new monthly and semiannual risky levels. My annual value levels will remain in the second half of 2013 at 12,696 Dow, 1348.3 S&P 500, 2806 Nasdaq, 5469 Dow transports and 809.54 Russell 2000.
Key stocks that have been downgraded by ValuEngine: On June 18 I wrote,
Buy-Rated Dow Components Slip To Ten
, and today the number slides to just eight.
($23.36) was downgraded to hold from buy on June 21, when I wrote,
. My monthly value level is $21.90 with this week's risky level at $24.43.
Procter & Gamble
($77.43) has been downgraded to hold from buy over the weekend. The stock is between annual levels at $75.13 and $78.73.
($39.76) continues to have a buy rating but archrival
($80.13) has been downgraded to hold from buy. My annual value level is $77.05 with an annual pivot at $79.02, a monthly pivot at $80.26 and weekly risky level at $81.46.
The autos-tires-trucks sector joins the transportation sector with an "avoid-source of funds" rating. There are 96 stocks in the auto sector and none are rated buy. With 55 rated sell and another 11 rated strong sell, 68.8% of the stocks have sell ratings. Four were downgraded to sell over the weekend.
($35.29) has a semiannual value level at $29.87 with a monthly pivot at $37.34 and weekly risky level at $38.03.
($119.55) has annual value levels at $112.27 and $101.68 with monthly and weekly risky levels at $123.44 and $123.45.
($13.51) has a semiannual value level at $10.53 with monthly and weekly risky levels at $14.59 and $14.96.
Also see: The Energy Credit is Still Here For 2013>>
($72.71) has a quarterly value level at $55.64 with weekly and monthly risky levels at $77.45 and $78.07.
At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
Richard Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a master of science from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. In 1981 he formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild and helped establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. Richard began writing market research in 1984 and held positions as market strategist at firms such as Smith Barney, William R Hough, Joseph Stevens, and Rightside Advisors. He joined
in 2008 producing newsletters covering the U.S. capital markets, and a universe of more than 7,000 stocks. Richard employs
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