NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Commentary on Tesla (TSLA) - Get Report abounds in the social sphere, but an elite group of Twitter micro-bloggers, who utilize the $TSLA "cash-tag" in their tweets, have demonstrated an ability to predict price movements in the luxury car's stock.
In the run up to the launch of Tesla's Model X SUVs, at an event on September 29 we at Market Prophit put together a snapshot of some of the most successful recent Tesla Tweeters (in order of followers -- see below). This group has been ranked, by our proprietary quantitative scoring engine, in the top tier of financial bloggers creating Tesla content on Twitter based on their track record of predicting up or down price movements of the company's stock.
1. @canuck2usa, 13,400 followers
2. @racernic, 1,537 followers
3. @aburnettt1, 321 followers
4. @AaronJohns0n, 234 followers
5. @afernandez321, 174 followers
6. @brucekeller, 87 followers
While some of these financial bloggers have a tremendous number of followers, others are essentially hidden gems, whose track record is not reflected in follower numbers. Looking beyond the handles, we found a very diverse group of analysts, traders and pundits with a variety of specialties. For example, @racernic, is Nicholas Chahine, a full time trader who specializes trading credit spreads and has a background in engineering and finance and who takes professional pride in being from Main Street rather than Wall Street.
The mavens in this list are those bloggers that we identify as "Market Prophits" who receive quantitative scores based on their accuracy of their stock market commentary. We contrast this group with the "Crowd" who we define as everyone making comments. From each of these groups, we generate aggregate sentiment signals for stocks and we respectively call these the Market Prophit Sentiment signal and the Crowd Sentiment signal. While both sentiment signals can be predictive of stock price movements, some interesting times to note are when the signals are in agreement or strong disagreement with each other as that can potentially signal confirmatory moves in stock price or potential turns in the stock price.
For example, as you can see in the chart below, we see a big divergence between the Market Prophit signal and the Crowd signal, right after Tesla's high of $282.26 on July 20. The Prophits took a decidedly negative view, immediately preceding the second quarter earnings which preceded the price drops in August hitting a low of $218.87.
In late August, the Market Prophits went bullish, while the Crowd remained bearish. Price improvements in September validated the maven's view yet again, and Tesla subsequently rallied.
Currently, both the Crowd and the Market Prophit sentiment is negative after the recent run up in the stock leading up to next Tuesday's event. And while the sentiment isn't very negative, unlike in the previous two examples, both groups are in agreement which might be viewed as a more confirmatory signal. Both the Crowd and the Market Prophits might be expressing that the excitement and anticipation of the launch of Model X, which was announced three years ago, and has been beset by setbacks, has already been factored into the recent run up in price. It will be interesting to see how the sentiment from both of these groups evolves as the stories and hype on the Model X grows leading up to and after next week's event.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.