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1. Soymeal Real Deal
By Howard Simons
1:20 p.m. EDT
I mentioned yesterday how the USDA crop estimates underscore the ongoing rally in corn and soybeans. Today old crop soymeal is limit-up, with its price having gone from just over $250 per ton in early March to $433 per ton today.
Soymeal shows up everywhere in your kitchen, whether as a direct food additive or as the high-protein feed mix for poultry and livestock. The jump in relative food inflation and the compression of food-processor margins will be real.
2. Long Bond Auction Extremely Good
By Tom Graff
1:14 p.m. EDT
Go figure. The 10-year auction yesterday was terrible. Today's long bond auction goes great. It looked like it was going to be 4.80% just before the auction, but came in at 4.72%. I can't remember such a large miss to the upside on a long bond auction.
Bid/cover was 2.68, which is the best we've seen all year for the long bond. Indirect bids (which is an indicator of foreign buying) was a whopping 49%. That's the best since the first re-opening of the long bond in 2006.
Interesting to note that the 10-year is having an even better day than the long bond. I'm still short
UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ProShares
but might take some profits for now and see if another entry point comes my way.
By Jim Cramer
12:18 p.m. EDT
I am banking on the Paris Air Show to move
higher, and I think it sandbagged today.
Second, insider buying is amazing at
Finally, I'm angry at myself for not pushing
as I told people to take profits after that huge gain from the secondary. But look at that action -- it is up 18 points since that secondary!
4. Oil Price Shock May Be So 2004
By Geoff Johnson
11:15 a.m. EDT
I think oil anywhere up to around $90 will cause only a short-term shock to the system as households re-readjust to higher pump prices, etc. Back in 2004, when oil made its first burst higher during that recovery, retail and restaurant sales had a material hiccup and it contributed to a rather unpleasant late spring/summer for the market (and my portfolio). However, the consumer readjusted and moved on.
Revisiting $90 oil will mean, no doubt, that some dinners at
will not be consumed and some
won't be bought. I noted recently that I was all but out of my retail (and since have moved out completely). Given that oil-price reflation could drive some level of negative retail surprises, I'm not rushing to buy back. However, I hope I get the chance to do so. Of course, if oil slumps from here, maybe I'll get no chance at all.
One positive in this picture is natural gas. Usually it is up with oil. If it remains in a bear market, then rising costs for those who depend on it for cooling/heating/industrial will not face added costs.
5.Financials, REITs and Oil
By Christopher Grey
10:06 a.m. EDT
I am turning increasingly bullish on large-cap financials and REITs and increasingly bearish on oil. My thoughts are related not just to fundamentals but also to how the markets are acting.
The wall of worry and frequent fits and starts and corrections taking place in large-cap financials and REITs looks like bull market behavior to me. The lack of any profit-taking, enthusiasm and overextension in the oil market seem to have all the elements of short-term speculation rather than a bull market.
Also, I do not think we can have $100 or even $80 oil and a lasting bull market or an economic recovery because of the negative impact on long-term bond yields and the effective tax on an already damaged consumer. I could see oil heading back to $60 very soon, and that would be very good for the economy.
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This article was written by a staff member of RealMoney.com.