Too many bulls!
I hate it when this
number hangs up at the 60%-plus bulls level, as the new reading, just out, shows.
I don't put much stock in short-interest figures. So much of the shorting in the world goes on off-board, in derivatives, that the short-interest figure is almost irrelevant. I also don't like the Big Board specialist numbers as indicators, since much of the real action these days is in the
The put/call ratio hasn't worked that well either, although I still like it for a short-term indicator.
But this bull-bear thing -- it works. When it stays around 60% bullish for too long, it signals a lower market.
Look, I want to be bullish. Check out
Getting a Handle on the Writings of James J. Cramer. I make more money when I am bullish (although I have shorts on at all times, and have been net short many times in my career). I see things I want to buy. I like the cyclicals for a trade.
governors are coming on
and saying the economy is growing "at a dangerously fast pace and must slow soon or risk accelerating inflation," as Edward Kelley was just quoted as saying, how the heck can I be bullish? Why can't I just wait for the tightening to shake out all of those bulls? Why do I have to be in now? Why do I have to be buying now?
Beats the heck out of me.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund had no positions in any stocks mentioned. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at