The RealMoney contributors are in the business of trading and investing all day on the basis of ongoing news flow. Below, we offer the top five ideas that RealMoney contributors posted today and how they played those ideas.
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1/15/2009 1:56 p.m. EST
I think we can have a great oversold bounce, but not a sustained market advance. I am watching the 830 area on the emini for initial resistance to this advance...
Morgan Stanley just out with positive comments on the education stocks.
iShares 20-Year Treasury
pulling back and
U.S. Oil Fund
bouncing ... all positive for a market advance.
Position: Long SPY
2. CEDC -- Trading Opportunity
1/15/2009 10:03 a.m. EST
Central European Distribution
has been bouncing off recent bottoms and trading in the $18-$24 range. These are over 30% short-term moves in a company that is 5.5 times December 2009 estimates in a business that should hold up relatively well during the recession ... the stock is under $19 again and traders (or investors) should take a look...
3. Airlines Come In but Could Then Rally
1/15/2009 9:55 a.m. EST
Barclays is out this morning with a note that neatly captures my read on the airlines. The group staged a strong rally but is being pulled down in the current selloff, even as oil prices move back down as well.
Barclays correctly points out that the group will post misleadingly weak numbers in the first quarter, due to fuel costs that reflect higher hedges, and industry seasonality. That could trigger selling by any investors not expecting to see tough first-quarter numbers. But the second quarter and beyond still look to be much stronger quarters, thanks to all those cost cuts and lower fuel prices. If the XAL moves back below $20, the strongest players deserve a fresh look.
4. Citigroup/Bank of America
1/15/2009 8:53 a.m. EST
It is quite obvious to all that the traders have decided to break
Bank of America
. I dont know how they can be stopped. There is no reason to own the common stocks, and neither can be bought -- unless they are merged by force because of their small common-stock capitalization. I believe that both have the capacity now to become
zombies, or a
zombie. These zombies don't go out of business; their common stocks they become these little calls. The question for me is,
5. More Estimate Cuts at Disney
1/15/2009 8:50 AM EST
Deutsche Bank and Citigroup cut estimates today on
. DB went to $1.75 and Citi to $1.90. The DB number may be low on the Street. This follows cuts by Morgan Stanley yesterday. Consensus for fiscal year 2009 ending September is heading toward $1.90.
Disney shares are down six days in a row, giving up 16% from their recovery high. I think more downside lies ahead as the premium multiple relative to peers' contracts.
Position: No position in stocks mentioned.
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This article was written by a staff member of RealMoney.com.