The tech earnings parade featured some surprises last night, with good action in tech stocks that reported after the market close Wednesday. I'll update
my pre-earnings view on those before taking a look at companies that will turn in their results postclose today.
Electronic Data Systems
blew away analyst expectations, reporting EPS of 9 cents instead of a loss of 5 cents. I showed the IT services provider 18.8% undervalued for a fair value at $25.49 going into earnings, with a positive weekly chart profile -- again, that type of chart tracks a rising stock price. These conditions set the stage for a positive reaction to earnings. The stock closed Wednesday above my quarterly pivot of $20.68, which meant that a better-than-expected result appeared likely. After we got that result, EDS traded up $1.85 to $23.14 in after-hours trading. My model suggests that long positions in EDS shares should be reduced at my quarterly risky level at $23.99.
We got another kind of surprise in
( IDNX): After the market close Wednesday, it matched expectations of a loss of 5 cents per share. But in a conference call July 13 and 14, this biometrics identification company had warned that fiscal 2005 fourth-quarter revenue would be down more than expected. That warning was made for the quarter ending June 30, before the terrorist events of July.
Identix is now experiencing a faster-than-expected transition to its new live scan systems, which has a lower maintenance price than the older legacy scan system. Identix is addressing this need to upgrade older models with a cost-reduction program. Note that the company has no debt, so it is positioned well to benefit from renewed demand for its products with the renewed focus on Homeland Security. My model shows Identix 33.3% undervalued, with a positive weekly chart profile. As a result of this earnings report, the stock should stay between my monthly value level at $4.68 and my quarterly risky level at $6.26.
( NAPS) buyers, pay attention here. The company kept to Wednesday's surprise theme, reporting a loss of 46 cents per share, much better than the expected loss of 61 cents. In its press release, the online music download subscription service company reported its fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth and announced the upcoming launch of Napster Japan. Excluding university students on summer break, subscriptions grew 13% sequentially and are up 300% year over year.
My models still show a major divergence between the fundamental and technical screens, as Napster is 63.6% overvalued, but with a positive weekly chart profile. This should keep shares between its weekly value level of $4.81 and its quarterly risky level of $5.93. Napster buyers will want to keep some buying power to take advantage of the possibility that shares could decline to my monthly value level of $3.14, which is the stock's fair value.
( OPWV) reports after the bell tonight, and is expected to deliver EPS of 8 cents. Openwave develops software to help its customers deliver Internet-based products concentrating on the telecommunications industry. My model shows OPWV 62.0% undervalued with a positive but overbought weekly chart profile. The five-week MMA at $17.40 provides support. My model shows a neutral zone between weekly pivots at $17.86 and $18.97. A negative or positive reaction to earnings should be below or above these levels.
Consensus expectations are for animation name
( PIXR) to report EPS of 10 cents. My model shows Pixar only 2.5% undervalued with a negative weekly chart profile, and the stock has been trading down in anticipation of a negative report. A positive reaction to earnings, however unlikely, would generate a weekly close above my annual risky level at $43.67. Without some indication that Pixar can turn things around, perhaps with a deal with
, shares are in a trend toward my annual value level at $27.66, which it could reach by the end of the year.
faces Wall Street EPS expectations of 14 cents. WebMD provides Internet-based services for information sharing among physicians, consumers, providers and health plans. My model shows WebMD 11.8% overvalued with a positive but overbought weekly chart profile. A weekly close below the five-week modified moving average at $10.42 would indicate risk to fair value at $9.77. On a positive reaction to earnings, WebMD should move above my weekly risky level at $11.10, with the recent high at $11.50 as resistance.
Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider Identix and Napster to be small-cap stocks. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices.
Richard Suttmeier is president of Global Market Consultants, Ltd., chief market strategist for Joseph Stevens & Co., a full service brokerage firm located in Lower Manhattan, and the author of
newsletter. At the time of publication, he had no positions in any of the securities mentioned in this column, but holdings can change at any time. Early in his career, Suttmeier became the first U.S. Treasury Bond Trader at Bache. He later began the government bond division at L. F. Rothschild. Suttmeier went on to form Global Market Consultants as an independent third-party research provider, producing reports covering the technicals of the U.S. capital markets. He also has been U.S. Treasury Strategist for Smith Barney and chief financial strategist for William R. Hough. Suttmeier holds a bachelor's degree from the Georgia Institute of Technology and a master's degree from Polytechnic University. Under no circumstances does the information in this commentary represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send your feedback --
to send him an email.