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Everyone's trying to game the unemployment statistics. They want any edge they can find. They are looking for any leg up.
I think I have one. Take a look at this chart of
Automatic Data Processing
, the nation's largest payroll processor. It is one of the reasons that I continue to be confident about job growth. It is one of the reasons I continue to assert that housing is OK and that banks are good to buy.
ADP completely predicted the big decline in jobs with its prescient stock action. Now you can see the nonstop ramp this time, as it is doing it again. I believe today's number was gameable from this run.
In fact, I think it was gameable now more than ever because ADP's earnings are also a function of short-rates -- they live off the float -- and we all know that short-rates don't have a snowball's chance in hell of going higher.
Study this chart. You can see that more times than not over the long term, ADP is THE TELL about these claims. I think the claims are going down. The correlation and the powers of chart prognostication make me bullish on the job picture going forward.
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
Jim Cramer, founder and chairman of TheStreet.com, writes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's RealMoney and runs the charitable trust portfolio,
. He also participates in video segments on TheStreet.com TV and serves as host of CNBC's "Mad Money" television program.
Mr. Cramer graduated magna cum laude from Harvard College, where he was president of The Harvard Crimson. He worked as a journalist at the Tallahassee Democrat and the Los Angeles Herald Examiner, covering everything from sports to homicide before moving to New York to help start American Lawyer magazine. After a three-year stint, Mr. Cramer entered Harvard Law School and received his J.D. in 1984. Instead of practicing law, however, he joined Goldman Sachs, where he worked in sales and trading. In 1987, he left Goldman to start his own hedge fund. While he worked at his fund, Mr. Cramer helped start Smart Money for Dow Jones and then, in 1996, he founded TheStreet.com, of which he is chairman and where he has served as a columnist and contributor since. In 2000, Mr. Cramer retired from active money management to embrace media full time, including radio and television.
Mr. Cramer is the author of "
," "You Got Screwed," "Jim Cramer's Real Money," "Jim Cramer's Mad Money," "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life" and, most recently, "Jim Cramer's Getting Back to Even." He has written for Time magazine and New York magazine and has been featured on CBS' 60 Minutes, NBC's Nightly News with Brian Williams, Meet the Press, Today, The Tonight Show, Late Night and MSNBC's Morning Joe.