These bonds throw a loop to the bear thesis don't they? Look, this bond juggernaut won't get mentioned by the talking heads, but it is playing havoc with a lot of the negative theses that I was trying to develop to explain away my angst last night.
They make you feel darn good! They are the universal antidote to the need to sell.
Of course, it gets confusing when you think about what is behind the big move down in rates. One theory is that Latin America is in crisis again and that could be behind the run-up. That theory makes sense until you see that
is up nicely, and typically you don't get a real shakeout down there without a serious blip in JPM, which is a true Latin "tell."
Another theory is now that the
deal is parked, bonds are free to run. That's OK and worth a few ticks, but this is a huge ramp. A third is that there is one large buyer of the bonds who is buying them aggressively and sloppily, with no sense of what he is doing. Hmmm. Now, that's one I like. That's what I think is happening.
No matter what, the action in the bonds seems more than a head fake. It seems like the real thing. They make you want to be complacent. Never have so many people made so much money being so greedy.
This stock market's incredible.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund was long Ford. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at