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A common refrain from the ranks of service sellers, chartists and all folks who are considered "pros" is that their is some sort of magic or formula to the way the market trades. To their credit, there is, the market trades up, always for all time. Of course the mere utterance of this paints me with the broad brush of being a perma-bull and certainly this sort of remark falls on deaf ears on a day like today.

I have been called a perma-bull on more than one occasion and it drives me a little crazy. Any positive thoughts on any company are met with, "Yeah, but you're a perma-bull." There are plenty of individual stocks that I've questioned the valuation on. There's no point to give myself credit here because I didn't make all the much money from the "short side" (more that later).

I freely admit that being long on on any single stock forever without following the company is not advised. If the facts change, change your mind, it's really not that difficult. But as far as the overall market is concerned, it goes up, always, over any time frame that matters to the general population. That's just a fact. We may be down 2% today but in two years, chances are, the market will be higher if only by a small amount.

If you invest in an S&P index fund today and reinvest the dividends quarterly you will most likely not double your money in the next two years or even five from these levels. Don't fall victim to irrational expectations. But I'd be willing to bet that in five years time you'll have more money. How much more? Who knows? I wouldn't spend too much time worrying about it to be honest.

Let's say the market averages a 5% return over the next five years. That seems reasonable to me (that's also below the historical norm). Throw in the current 2% yield and that gets you to 7% (also below normal). Let's take it a few steps further. Take away quarterly compounding and change it to annual and go out 30 years. If you put $10,000 in an index fund today, contributed just $100 monthly and it returned 7% on average for 30 years, do you know you'd have close to $200,000? ($197.410.22 to be exact,but with quarterly compounding you'd surpass $200k ).

I don't know: That sounds like a pretty good deal. If you combine an investing plan like that with an employer sponsored 401k with a company match, it seems like you might have a pretty solid retirement whether social security is around or not.

Just for kicks let's take a look at a really boring stock that I happen to own and is widely held, Intel (INTC) - Get Intel Corporation (INTC) Report . Using our 30-year time frame, let's just say for kicks you bought Intel stock on this day in 1986. The '87 crash still dead ahead, Asian contagion, bubble, financial crisis also yet to rear their ugly heads. What do you think the gain is in Intel over that time adjusted for splits and dividends? I'll tell you: it's 6,527%. The adjusted cost basis on the Intel from 1986 -- 43 cents. I don't want to even attempt the math on reinvesting that dividend. Let's just say you're rich and end it there.

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But let's be honest, over the past 30 years, plenty of companies have turned to goose eggs. I've never owned one yet but that day may be coming. A 6,000% return is not something that should be expected. But I would bet over the next 30 years there will be a number of stocks that offer a similar return. If you pick 10 stocks and only one matches boring old Intel, you'd be in pretty good shape, wouldn't you?

Here are some others that would have turned out more than okay and their adjusted closing price for Feb. 8, 1986.

Coca Cola $0.92
General Mills $1.68
Nike $0.20
Apple $0.36
General Electric $1.32
Disney $1.83

You can check the prices today and calculate the gain yourself. Yes, those are prices in "cents" you see. Can you find one of them? I think you can. It seems unlikely to me that any of us will ever get a 6,000% gain in shorting anything no matter how many times we do it. (Maybe you can, I know I can't.)

But I also know that long term, being a perma-bull is the only option. To think otherwise would be to suggest that things "will be different this time." It won't be different this time.

I am long GE and INTC at the time of this post.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held GE and INTC.