Early this morning, an absolute evil act was perpetrated upon the citizens of Brussels by some of the same people of the Paris attacks in November of 2015 (ISIS has claimed responsibility for both). My prayers go out to the souls who we lost today, while my heart goes out to their families and loved ones.
But, from a market standpoint, it spoke quite loudly that it would not be affected by these heinous acts. And, similar to the aftermath of the attacks in Paris, the market rallied. There are those who believe world events cause changes in world sentiment. They may find it shocking that the market reacted in such a manner after such a horrific event. But it's just more proof that sentiment is not swayed by events. So, the market continued along its way, as it signaled that it has not yet completed its upside pattern.
In following what is known in Elliott Wave theory as Fibonacci Pinball, a market in the heart of a 3rd wave often targets the 1.236 extension of waves 1 and 2, and then pulls back to the .764 extension before continuing higher. This is exactly the action we have seen of late in the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, as it topped last week just below the 1.236 extension and today pulled back to the .764 extension and then continued higher. Therefore, fully expect the market to continue to our next higher target regions as long as today's lows hold.
The main point the market made today was that it continued higher despite bad news. When markets rally on bad news, it is a clear sign that they have higher levels to attain. But, as many have been attempting to short this market for the last 250 points up, we may finally be reaching a point at which a short may be advisable. Expect a pullback to at least the 2027 region in the S&P 500 once we top in this current wave, potentially this week.
For now, resistance sits at 2060, but, if we are able to maintain the current bullish posture, a gap through it tomorrow points us to 2080. However, please take note that we are moving up into nosebleed territory, and the minimum downside target I have once we top up here is at least 30 points below the level we reside as I write this update. Ultimately, I finally believe we will be lower than we are today within the next few weeks, so maintaining an aggressive long side perspective right now is not advisable.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.