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Here's a theory for you. The

Fed

, despite its protestations, was really targeting tech stocks in its repeated tightenings. Now that the fluff has started to come out of tech, those who buy stocks with earnings think they are about to get a break.

Let's go over the tortured logic of this analysis. There was never anything overinflated about the part of the economy with earnings. In fact, these guys have been taking it on the chin for some time from global competition and merger downsizing.

But

Greenspan

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& Co. were upset about the dot-com economy, and its wildly overinflated prospects. The Fed decided it would tighten until it popped the bubble. Now the bubble is popping, so it doesn't need to tighten any more. (That's how I would describe the action on my screens.)

So now we can expect to see a higher multiple paid for real earnings, or "multiple expansion," something that always happens when the Fed is near finishing the tightenings.

Why am I buying into this logic? Because the

NAPM

numbers showed a lot of strength, yet the financials and other interest-rate-sensitive stocks are rallying, something that doesn't make sense on the face of it. Only this theory, that the Fed can now take it easy on the tightenings because the dot-com bubble has burst, can explain this kind of rally.

James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund had no positions in any stocks mentioned. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at

jjcletters@thestreet.com.