"Winners never quit, and quitters never win." -- Vince Lombardi
NEW YORK (
) --In my last
Extreme Movers Message I specifically argued that price action was signaling lower oil prices were ahead. This seemed like an unusual concept as media pundits talked up commodities following the
QE3 announcement, yet price was clearly warning at the time that deterioration was under way within the market.
In this week's analysis, it seems that this time around it is natural gas that is particularly vulnerable.
Every week I run a screen on the over 1,000 ETFs/ETNs I track to identify those areas of the investable landscape that are exhibiting extreme price behavior relative to their own respective 20-day moving averages. The idea is to see if there is a message happening beneath the surface of the market by looking at the opposite ends of winners and losers spectrum over a rolling one-month period. Take a look below for the latest results.
There are a few key themes at play here. Among the extreme winners, note that the
Market Vectors Coal ETF
takes the lead. Part of this may have to do with the perception that a Mitt Romney presidency would be more friendly to the industry, but I have my doubts.
Rather, the move in coal stocks may be in anticipation of coal demand increasing because natural gas has had such a big run so far. As a substitute for electricity generation then, utility companies may begin to switch away from natural gas and instead move to coal. This, in turn, would weaken the demand for natural gas, and likely cause prices to decline to compete.
The other particularly notable aspect of the "winners" is the surge in China, which I have argued in my various writings was likely to buck a corrective period in U.S. stocks. As leadership changes take place in the world's second-largest economy, it appears that money is getting comfortable taking risk there, potentially on the idea of further stimulus or at least an avoidance of a hard landing scenario.
As to the losers? Oil (USO) shows up on the list, as well as solar (TAN), further adding to the argument that QE3 is not having the effect of reflating energy costs in the here and now. This is confirmed by silver (DBS), and platinum (PLTM), which as industrial plays refuse to get any new love from investors on the backs of unlimited money printing from the Fed. The message here appears to be complete doubt that global growth will return following central bank action.
The bottom line? Extreme winners are saying that China is the preferred country of choice for equity investments now, and that natural gas could fall as coal gets a relative bid. Independent of this, though, the breakdown in oil, silver and platinum seems to be indicating doubts over QE3's effectiveness as a way of sparking inflation.
Could unlimited not be enough?
At the time of publication the author had no position in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.