A funny thing has happened over the past few weeks around Washington, D.C.
It appears that
has decided to roll the dice in Washington, putting more muscle for a buildup of service at Dulles airport.
This is newsworthy on several fronts, the first being that Dulles is now the fourth major US Airways hub on the East Coast. Second, it appears that US Airways has decided to fight a two-front war -- going against
at Baltimore-Washington International and
US Airways already has three major hubs on the East Coast -- a fact that, to be honest, has always mystified me. If you know anything about O&D (origin and destination routing) market strategy and flyover routing, you have to admit the existing route system seems inefficient at best.
If the airline had a substantial trans-Atlantic operation, that would be one thing -- but it doesn't. However, it has just recently put hundreds of millions of dollars into its Philadelphia hub, anticipating that Philadelphia will become its flagship point of entry to Europe going forward. However, the airline also has a major hub at Pittsburgh, and the US Airways Shuttle runs up and down the East Coast with Washington's National Airport as its base.
Then, this past year, US Airways announced its
service out of BWI -- a lower-cost alternative to mainline service that the airline is using as a hedge against such competitors as Southwest Airlines and
Delta Air Lines'
So, with all of this going on, why did US Airways open up another front by declaring war in Dulles, where that slumbering giant United Airlines holds sway, along with its agile regional partner,
I see three reasons behind this move:
- A white flag in the war with Southwest. This buildup at Dulles may be a concession to Southwest's operation at BWI. MetroJet or no MetroJet, Southwest continues to be an irresistable force out of BWI, as it continues to expand its service. US Airways seems to have come to the conclusion that going after United is easier than a fight with Southwest at BWI.
Long-term strategy. US Airways CEO
Rakesh Gangwal has said he wanted to fly internationally out of Washington. (Of course, this begs the issue of the recent substantial cash outlay at Philadelphia.)
Grudge match. Let's not forget those important elements in operational decisions: grudges and incestuous relationships. In case you have not noticed, many ex-United executives have now migrated to US Airways -- a trend that started when former United and now US Airways Chairman Stephen Wolf took over at the airline a few years ago. It is a virtual revolving door of late. Out at United, in at US Airways. Inevitably, this has gotten the competitive juices flowing.
I must admit that initially I thought they were nuts. Everyone I talked to said basically the same thing: "What the heck is going on?" I don't think that anymore, but US Airways had better be prepared to see this thing through -- because it has now started something at Dulles that is either going to end up well for it or end up very badly.
After the announcement of the new MetroJet service,
downgraded the shares of Atlantic Coast, sending the stock into a tailspin from which it's only now recovering. Coast retaliated with news of its own expansion out of Dulles a few days later.
The next move across the Dulles chessboard belonged to US Airways once again, however, as it then announced it was setting up another Shuttle operation with hourly service to LaGuardia from Dulles. This would be in addition to its existing service out of National.
As of this morning, no further retaliation from the other side has occurred. Yet.
As a result, it seems that US Airways thinks it can go in and establish a beachhead at Dulles before UAL has time or the ability to react. It's a calculated risk. UAL could decide it wants to put its own lower-cost Shuttle by United operation at Dulles. But, again, how long would this take?
My take? If you are going to do it, don't do it halfway. US Airways has started this -- now it can't turn back and it can't back down. I'd pull even more aircraft and resources from the BWI operation and go full steam ahead at Dulles.
Meanwhile, it's United's move. Pssst -- will someone please wake them up?
Which Airlines Will Fly the Highest in 1999?
Get those pencils ready! Get those mice working! I want to hear which airline stocks you think will outperform the sector in 1999. This week, Wing Tips will be taking that dreaded look forward with our own fearless forecast for 1999. But, as always, I want to hear which airline stocks YOU like for 1999. Send me an email before Jan. 4 with your top five choices for 1999 to
email@example.com. I will tally up all the choices and announce the
reader choices during the first week of January. Then, as we have done this year, we will track the
best bets throughout the coming year.
And yes! A simply stunning long-sleeved
T-shirt awaits one lucky reader who takes the time to send us his or her highflier selections. One reader will be selected at random to receive the one piece of winter apparel that you simply cannot do without.
Holly Hegeman, based in Dallas, pilots the Wing Tips column. At the time of publication Hegeman was long Southwest, though positions can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.