March 29, 2000

I believe it was just about one week ago that

Abby Joseph Cohen

raised her

S&P 500

target to 1575 from 1525. That same day, I watched her interview on


"Moneyline," where she said that for the first time in 10 years, she no longer thought portfolios should overweight technology. I can't believe I'm the only one who heard her say that! Yesterday's comments on tech stocks from Abby were not news!

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Sure, it was news that she took 5% out of stocks and put it into cash. And that sort of action should've taken the market down much more, but it didn't. It took tech shares down, but that's only because they had not done enough preparation for this rally; they needed to come back down. When they showed us on Friday they could no longer rally on good news (better-than-expected durable goods), we became aware that any small bit of negative news would take 'em down.

We now need to watch the lows that tech stocks made almost two weeks ago as the shares come back down. If the stocks hold at the same low or higher lows, it will be good news for these stocks. This sort of action would give us the second leg down of the "W" discussed in yesterday's


In addition, compare yesterday's advance/decline line to Monday's to see the continued improvement on the


. The S&P was down 3 and change on Monday with the A/D line at negative 406. Tuesday, the S&P was down more than 16, and the A/D line was only at negative 312. Many (not all) of those Old Economy stocks are not participating on the downside. Some of these stocks really do continue to show improvement.

Overbought/Oversold Oscillators

Helene Meisler, based in Singapore, writes a technical analysis column on the U.S. equity markets on Tuesdays and Fridays, and updates her charts daily on Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. At time of publication, she held no positions in any securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback at