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Feb. 16, 2000

With all the talk of trimming the supply of the 30-year bond, then talk of reducing supply all the way across the curve, interest rates have been swinging rather wildly lately. And with long-term (30-year) rates now around 6.25% and


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this week, I thought it might be a good time to have a look at this chart.

The 200-day moving average line is still rising and has not yet been broken. If this recent move down in rates is for real and leads to a change in the trend, then that moving average line must first be broken. The 200-day moving average line is currently around 6.15%, and it is my belief that unless and until that number is broken, the trend in rates is still up. We still have higher highs and higher lows, which defines an uptrend. Therefore, the uptrend in rates is still intact.

Helene Meisler, based in Singapore, writes a technical analysis column on the U.S. equity markets on Tuesdays and Fridays, and updates her charts daily on Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. At time of publication, she held no positions in any securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback at