There are a lotta smart people emailing me saying
in the end has to go out of business, that it just doesn't make enough money on what it sells.
I am not long Amazon. But let me give you the big bull case. It's the "Last Man Standing" standing defense, and, from where I sit, Amazon might have it dead right.
It goes like this: Amazon has a war chest. One thing is for certain; the company has had little problem replenishing that war chest. In the meantime it sells many goods at ultra-low prices, betting that it can hook you. I know I am hooked. I buy more books now and go to the library less than any other time in my life.
There were initially many Amazon-esque pretenders with frictionless models out there. They are almost all at their 52-week low. They are pathetic stinking losers. Most of them have no hope and go up only on periodic short squeezes. Most investors feel totally fleeced by the sector. I couldn't bring public a dot-com competitor of Amazon now if I offered a $3 selling concession per share -- and that's huge. I wouldn't buy one of these even if it sold at its cash position, which some of them do.
So what happens next?
Simple: They all go out of business and Amazon takes its hooked populace of eager users and it
raises the price
. It can do that because it is the last man standing!
That's the bull case. Right now it looks so unassailable that I almost bought 25,000! But
prevailed, and we did his moniker as a way to placate me.
Now you know what I know. Good luck with it.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund was long Yahoo! and AOL. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at