Don't these bonds ratchet up the stakes to the long side? Every day we come in, and every day they beat us up. They remind me of a hard rain that keeps falling every time we go outside.
You see the bonds' handiwork in the drugs, which are stuck in the mud because they are fine growth stocks that don't work in a declining bond environment. You see their work in the cyclicals, which should be ramping off
but can't get any traction because the bonds are indicating that the
is going to raise rates big time and kill the economy's strength. You see it in the financials, all of which are trading down precipitously because financials don't act well when short rates move up.
Only selected tech issues can overcome this hard rain, but there the perennial problems of
-- two of the worst postearnings conference calls we have been on in some time -- threaten to derail these stalwarts.
The action in the bonds is bringing out the inevitable put-buying and call-selling of the indices, which is running
than normal already this morning. In fact, the bull in me wonders how come the market isn't down even more considering all of the firepower the bears are pouring on right now. (Newbies: Lots of buying of
puts places pressure on the indices, as the sellers of those puts hedge themselves by selling futures.)
But it is early.
Number cuts around the Street again for
. That's OK -- long term, there will just be more number cuts! ...
has warned me, no more speculation about what the S&P 500 is going to add. Those guys are just too mercurial. ... Anybody watching this tortuous battle between
and the mortgage bankers? Every analyst tells me not to worry about it, but I dumped my Fannie Mae at 68 because of it and the struggle has only gotten worse and more heated. ... To those of you pretending to be me and those of you reading me in the chat boards, that is
me. I used to go there before it became like attending a pro-hate conference. If you see people using my name, it is not me.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund had no positions in any stocks mentioned. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at