Repeater

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. -- Check these out.

The staff forecast prepared for this meeting pointed to considerable slowing in the expansion of economic activity in the year ahead to a pace somewhat below the estimated growth of the economy's potential.

The staff forecast prepared for this meeting continued to point to considerable slowing in the expansion of economic activity to a pace appreciably below the estimated growth of the economy's potential, but the expansion was expected to pick up later to a rate more in line with that potential.

The staff forecast prepared for this meeting incorporated a considerably weaker assessment of underlying aggregate demand, owing to downward revisions to growth abroad and to the less accommodative conditions that were evolving in U.S. financial markets.

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The staff forecast prepared for this meeting indicated that economic activity would expand through 1999 at a pace somewhat below the estimated growth of the economy's potential.

The staff forecast prepared for this meeting indicated that economic activity would expand more slowly over the projection period than it had in recent years.

The staff forecast prepared for this meeting indicated that the expansion of economic activity would slow considerably during the next few quarters and remain moderate in 1999.

The staff forecast prepared for this meeting indicated that the expansion of economic activity would slow appreciably during the next few quarters and remain moderate in 1999.

The staff forecast prepared for this meeting indicated that the expansion of economic activity would slow appreciably during the next few quarters and remain moderate in 1999.

The staff forecast prepared for this meeting suggested somewhat greater moderation in economic expansion than had been projected earlier and slightly less pressure on wages and prices.

The staff forecast prepared for this meeting suggested that the economy would continue to expand for a time at a pace considerably above its potential, but growth was expected to moderate to a more sustainable rate later.

The staff forecast prepared for this meeting suggested that the economy would expand at a pace significantly above that anticipated earlier for the second half of the year and the early part of 1998, but economic growth was likely to moderate appreciably to a more sustainable rate later.

The staff forecast prepared for this meeting suggested that the expansion of the economy would be damped in the second half of the year by a slowing of inventory accumulation from the unsustainably brisk pace in the first half of the year.

Know what these are? They're

Fed

forecast nuggets taken from the

minutes of the dozen most recent

FOMC

meetings. (Note that the minutes from the Feb. 2-3 meeting will not be available until April.)

How far back do moderation forecasts go? This one:

The staff forecast prepared for this meeting suggested that economic activity would expand at a relatively slow pace over the near term.

Dates back to January 1996.

Tired of reading the same things over and over?

Me too.

Side Dish

Your correspondent stands behind the solutions posted Friday to the questions asked Thursday.

The first question was one that caused much controversy. It was the flipside of this popular brainteaser:

You run into a boy. He is a member of a two-sibling family. What are the chances that his sibling is also a boy?

And though reasonable people do

disagree about how to interpret this set of information, the answer to the problem is one-third as long as the reader makes no assumptions about reducing the possible universe of sample sizes.

Your correspondent therefore stands behind the assertion that the answer to the first question posted Thursday:

You run into a girl. She is a member of a two-sibling family. What are the chances that her sibling is a boy?

Is two-thirds.

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