Tesla shares spent all of 2013 and most of 2014 riding their 40-week (200-day) moving average higher. This year the average flattened, and the stock price ran out of juice moving sideways in wide channel consolidation. The August low took it down near the channel bottom, but it bounced sharply moving back above the 40-week average. This month it has been consolidating in a second smaller basing pattern, and a breakout could power the stock to new highs.
The weekly chart shows the support that the average provided during the rally period and then how price reverted around it during the first consolidation phase. Currently, the stock is back above the average, and the stochastics indicator, which measures the close relative to its high-low range, is reflecting the positive price momentum. Chaikin money flow at the bottom of the chart has held above its 21-period signal average despite the August pullback, reflecting continued buying interest.
The second smaller consolidation, seen in detail on the daily chart, resembles a rudimentary inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The assumption is that price will break above the neckline and resume its uptrend, and it is considered one of the more reliable bullish continuation patterns. Daily moving average convergence/divergence is overlaid on a weekly histogram of the indicator and is rising on both time frames. The accumulation distribution line is tracking higher and above its signal line, confirming the weekly Chaikin money flow reading.
Tesla is a long candidate after a strong close above the neckline with a position size that allows for an initial
stop under the right shoulder. The pattern target price is measured by adding its height to the neckline, and that projects to new highs in the $320 area.
Disclosure: This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.