Editor's Note: Richard Suttmeier is a columnist for TheStreet.com whose Tech Trading Diary appears every Tuesday on TheStreet.com. He is also the author of TheStreet.com Technology Report newsletter.
CTXS, the access infrastructure-software company, is 20.9% undervalued. The stock at $22.56 is between my monthly pivot at $21.94 and my quarterly pivot at $22.84. Whenever I see a tight range of longer-term levels, it means that there needs to be a catalyst to end the week above $22.84 or below $21.94. A weekly close above $22.84 this week indicates potential to the December high at $26.00. A weekly close below $21.94 indicates risk to the 200-week simple moving average at $18.18.
NOK, the leader in handsets, is 46.2% undervalued with a positive but overbought weekly chart profile. The five-week MMA crossed above the 200-week SMA on June 10.
INTC, the leading chipmaker, is 27.7% undervalued with a positive but overbought weekly chart profile. The five-week MMA crossed above the 200-week SMA on May 27.
To answer to your question, I rate both a buy. INTC has been in
model portfolio since its inception in early April.
I, too, believe in tech sectors, and that they will eventually lead this sluggish market. Productivity should be the name of the end-game, right? Now about our local big wireless giant: Qualcomm (QCOM) - Get Report. I have been an owner of this stock for about eight years now. I still own 10,000 shares and have only sold about 2,000 shares along the way! I think they are still a strong future play since they own almost all CDMA patents, have about 8 billion in cash and no long-term debt. What do you think? Is this a solid long-term hold and should we be buying more at these prices (about $35.00 today). Thanks. -- Dave From Beautiful San Diego
QCOM is 13.4% undervalued, making its fair value $40.55. A close this week above its five-week MMA at $35.04 shifts the weekly chart profile to neutral from negative, increasing the odds of a return to fair value.
Sell Yahoo! (YHOO) on this earnings announcement or buy back lower? What is the fair value? -- Janet
YHOO is 29.5% undervalued, which puts fair value at $51.37. The weekly chart profile is neutral, declining 12x3 the weekly slow stochastic, but above its five-week modified moving average at $35.62. YHOO typically trades undervalued, and I have seen shares trade more than 40% undervalued, where I would be a buyer. I suggest selling strength to my semiannual risky level of $37.28, if the opportunity occurs.
Yahoo! is expected to post earnings of 13 cents per share when they report after the close on Tuesday. The five-week MMA has been above the 200-week SMA since Dec. 19, 2003, as Internet companies led off the October 2002 lows. The key levels to penetrate and hold on a positive reaction to earnings are quarterly and monthly resistances at $37.28 and $38.19, respectively.
The Yahoo! brand ranks No. 1 in views, with 99.137 million unique views in June and with an average of just over three hours, six minutes time online per person during the month. This is a solid demographic to maintain or expand online ad dollars.
Sun is in TheStreet.com Technology Report Model Portfolio. I show it 39% undervalued, which puts fair value at $6.16. A close this week above the five-week modified moving average at $3.75 shifts the weekly chart profile to positive, targeting my monthly risky level at $4.73.
Hi. I am writing from Sweden. You can guess my question -- Ericsson (ERICY) today. -- Andre
ERICY -- 58.4% undervalued with an overbought weekly chart. The five-week modified moving average is support at $32.52 with quarterly resistance from my model at $43.32.
EBAY -- My long-term is a rolling six-month horizon. At the end of each month, I input the monthly closes and reassess the risk/reward for the new rolling six month horizon. This allows me to update and provide you revised levels at which to buy and sell.
CMGI (CMGI) , F5 Networks (FFIV) - Get Report, Dycom (DY) - Get Report and Tekelec (TKLC) are already in my portfolio, but I am considering increasing my stake in all four. I bought CMGI during the bubble days and am down considerably, but I have a slight profit in the other three. How do you think that these stocks are valued at current levels? Thank you very much. -- Judy
I do not have enough data to evaluate CMGI, but weakness should stay above my semiannual support at $1.69. FFIV is 5.5% undervalued with a positive weekly chart profile. This week's support is $47.41 with weekly resistance at $52.09. Buy at support, and sell at resistance. Support is considered a value level. Resistance is considered a risky level. DY is 15.8% undervalued with a positive weekly chart profile. This month's pivot is $23.20 with semiannual resistance at $24.63. A monthly pivot is likely to be a magnet during July. As an example, last week DY traded above $23.20, but then came back to test $23.20 before moving higher. TKLC is 31.8% undervalued with a positive weekly chart profile. This week's support is $15.45 with monthly resistance at $17.43.
Hi Rich. Are you still bullish on the semis? It seems like folks including
are lining up against them. Your thoughts? -- Dave
The SOX is up 20.7% since my first bullish call at the end of April. The SOX is up 10.6% in the first half of July.
and others who did not make the call can't get bullish now. If the SOX corrects, I will have a level at which to buy.
Richard Suttmeier is president of Global Market Consultants, Ltd., chief market strategist for Joseph Stevens & Co., a full service brokerage firm located in Lower Manhattan, and the author of
newsletter. At the time of publication, he had no positions in any of the securities mentioned in this column, but holdings can change at any time. Early in his career, Suttmeier became the first U.S. Treasury Bond Trader at Bache. He later began the government bond division at L. F. Rothschild. Suttmeier went on to form Global Market Consultants as an independent third-party research provider, producing reports covering the technicals of the U.S. capital markets. He also has been U.S. Treasury Strategist for Smith Barney and chief financial strategist for William R. Hough. Suttmeier holds a bachelor's degree from the Georgia Institute of Technology and a master's degree from Polytechnic University. Under no circumstances does the information in this commentary represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send your feedback --
to send him an email.