Tech Rally Won't Last

These stocks want to go up, but that energy isn't sustainable. If it's not fiber or phones, it's a trade.
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Editor's Note: This is a bonus story from Jim Cramer, whose commentary usually appears only on RealMoney. It originally was published on April 27 at 1:14 p.m. EDT. We're offering it today to TheStreet.com readers. To read Cramer's commentary regularly, please click here for information about a free trial to RealMoney.

Tech wants to go higher here.

Intel's

(INTC) - Get Report

putting on a great face at the analyst meeting so it isn't hurting us. People think that

Microsoft

(MSFT) - Get Report

can deliver a good quarter. We have the

Broadcom

(BRCM)

/

Qualcomm

(QCOM) - Get Report

complex at last getting off the dime. The

MRV Communications

(MRVC)

report is helping the group (don't forget,

Conexant

(CNXT) - Get Report

is on tap after the close and I think it will be good). Plus, we had a rare good article about fiber in

The Wall Street Journal

, which should be working for everything from

Level 3

(LVLT)

to

JDSU

(JDSU)

. Even

Seagate

(STX) - Get Report

is rallying.

I, for one, think it is not sustainable. Perhaps we will get some positive chatter today, but if Microsoft doesn't do well -- and I don't have any idea of whether it will -- we will give back these gains. The group's got no momentum going into the summer and given that there is no Vista in sight, you lose a lot of the reason to buy. The buying is concentrated in FTTP and some cell-phone stuff, mostly because of competitive forces (cable vs. telephone, telephone carrier vs. telephone carrier).

I think that anything away from those two sectors in tech is just a trade. I sure wish I could be more bullish, but PCs have become like mid-ranges in the previous decade; they don't work as a theme. And the Web seems to be off and on. For every

Monster Worldwide

(MNST) - Get Report

, we get a

CNet

(CNET) - Get Report

!

I would be very careful away from the complex of telco/cable/wireless. There's just no there, there.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Microsoft and Qualcomm.

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