By Chris Vermeulen of TheGoldAndOilGuy.com
NEW YORK (
) --It was an interesting options expiration week for equities, that's for sure. We saw some very choppy price action with large waves of buying and selling as the bulls and bears fought for control.
Both gold and oil closed lower for the week, which is not a good sign, considering the U.S. dollar dropped like a rock along with them.
Continue for a few of my charts.
Gold continues to pull back from the June highs. It looks as though it could form an ABC retrace pattern if the July 7 low is broken. If $1,085 is broken, we should see gold drop to the $1,065-$1,075 level. On the GLD etf, that would be around the $112.50-$113.50 level. That should shake out the majority of weak positions and start a rally toward the $1,250/60 level.
This is a weekly chart of oil, which clearly shows how selling volume has risen and the trend since 2009 has gone up, sideways and is now heading back down. The bear flag forming on this weekly chart looks about ready for another leg down. Once that occurs, we could see a test of the 2009 lows.
Using some inter-market analysis, crude oil tends to move in the opposite direction of the U.S. dollar. From a quick glance at the dollar chart, it looks about ready to bounce, which will send oil sharply lower. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds over the next two to three weeks.
Friday we saw some of the S&P 500 sell off on heavy volume after testing its 50- and 200-day moving averages, which are key levels for trading and investors to take profits or add to their short positions in hope for another multi day sell off.
That being said, there is still a good change of higher prices. For all we know, this could be the start of another multi-month rally. While I am more inclined for us to play the down side this week, I will not have a problem taking a long position, if we start to see the market internals and breadth improve along with bullish price action. I monitor the 60, 30 and 10 minute charts, which allow me to get a feel for the overall short-term trend and strength.
Overall, it looks like we could have a couple more days of weakness for stocks and commodities. The U.S. dollar is very much oversold and as of this writing (on Sunday), it looks like it's starting a small bounce. A rising dollar tends to put downward pressure on gold and oil along with the large multi national companies.
Equities sold off Friday with a slow grind down from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m., never putting in any type of bounce when looking at the 60 minute chart. The S&P 500 and other indexes are way over sold after Friday and I am expecting some follow through Monday as investors review the charts over the weekend and see what happened on Friday. That should cause another wave of selling in the morning as traders panic out of positions.
It's going to be an exciting week for sure!
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-- Written by Chris Vermeulen in Collingwood, Ontario, Canada
Chris Vermeulen is founder of the popular trading sites www.thegoldandoilguy.com and www.ActiveTradingPartners.com. There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method. Since 2001, Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, silver, oil and stocks in both bull and bear markets.