Stocks closed slightly down on Thursday as the Federal Reserve signaled against a rate hike in December -- if folks read the entire communique properly.
The DJIA was down 4.41 to close at 17,733 while the S&P 500 lost 2.34 to finish at 2,081. The Nasdaq was lower by 1.56 to close at 5,073 while the Russell 2000 lost 5 points to close at 1,167.
The markets are setting up for a move higher on Friday to finish the trading week on the upside. Intel and the SPDR Gold Trust were two big winners on Thursday, with Intel closing higher by 3.44% and the SPDR Gold Trust closing higher by 1.10%.
With the Federal Reserve signaling that a rate hike is not a done deal at the December FOMC meeting, the U.S. dollar was lower on Thursday. In addition, the Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (IEF) - Get Report was higher, with gold higher. This is a clear signal that the markets believe that the Fed will not raise interest rates.
This would appear to make sense. The global economy continues to signal growth slowing and there is a distinct possibility that the world is already in a global recession. Recently, President Xi of China, who was speaking at the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting, said: "The Chinese economy is still coping with a complicated internal and external environment, considerable downward pressure and the temporary pains of deep reforms. The opportunities are unprecedented and the challenges are unprecedented."
Short term, the U.S. stock market is in a bullish pattern through the end of 2015, as long as the Fed continues to signal no rate hike. If the Fed does raise rates in December, something that would appear to have a small probability of happening, all bets are off. The markets could have a massive selloff if rates are raised.
In the meantime, I am looking to buy Netapp Inc. (NTAP) - Get Report on a down open Friday. It is an S&P 500 component that has an extreme oversold condition. A starter position is warranted. A chart of NTAP showing the extreme oversold signal:
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.