NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Two months into the trading year in 2015, the stock indexes are virtually flat.
After four consecutive up days in the DJIA to start the month of February, the DJIA gave back 60.59 points on Friday to close at 17,824. The S&P 500 lost 7.05 to finish at 2,055.47. The Nasdaq lost 20.70 points to close at 4,744.39 and the Russell 2000 was lower by 3.24 to close at 1,205.46.
It appears that 2015 will be known as the year of volatility.
At the same time, it seems that the markets are at the "end of the rainbow" instead of the beginning. This 32-month-long overbought market condition is on par with the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, according to my internal algorithm process.
Traders need to stay cautious as we move forward in 2015.
Also, it appears the momentum stocks are now showing signs of leakage to the downside.
Stocks such as Alibaba (BABA) - Get Report , GoPro (GPRO) - Get Report , Yelp (YELP) - Get Report and Netflix (NFLX) - Get Report are all "trend bearish," according to my process. This is a three-month or longer time frame.
The S&P Goldman Sachs Crude Oil Trust ETN (OIL) - Get Report has had a fantastic run to the upside from the extraordinarily oversold weekly signal that has been mentioned here previously. Since the week that ended Jan. 23, OIL has gained 16.36%. It is now overbought and a correction is in order in the near future.
Currently, oil stocks such as HollyFrontier (HFC) - Get Report and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) - Get Report are extraordinarily overbought, according to my internal signals, and should not be chased by traders at current levels.
In sum, stay opportunistic in your trading and be cautious. This stock market is not for amateur momentum traders.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author is short HFC.