Sorting Out the Swirl of Rumors
The market according to Fleetwood Mac. Yeah, all I am hearing is Rumors, and with every new one down, I grow more frustrated with the gossip swirling around me.
First, there is the ubiquitous Tiger in the Tank
story, which we have done our own share of bringing to you. This rumor has is that Julian is in trouble, which means that
US Airways
(U)
,
Federal-Mogul
(FMO)
,
Intel
(INTC)
and the bonds and the dollar -- not to mention
Tricon
(YUM)
and
Capital One
TheStreet Recommends
(COF)
-- are in trouble.
To which I say, give me a break. I hear he had the whole fund on the
Seahawks
against the
Sanders
-less
Lions
. And then he put the whole fund on the hurricane hitting Jacksonville, and then he took what was left and went to Foxwoods to wager on Black 9. We are still waiting for the spin.
Then I am hearing that the insurers are positioned all wrong in the bonds -- like they have never seen a hurricane -- and they are slaughtering the bonds.
Of course, I am hearing DRAMs dipped down for 72 minutes.
And I heard earlier of a massive
NDX
sell program that is being worked somewhere between here and Alpha Centauri.
Let me tell you what I think is happening. This week is options expiration week. It is a triple expiration. There are lots of unplottable shenanigans that will occur from now until Friday that will roil the market. The moves you see on your screen are for the most part random references to ongoing programs related to triple-witch.
So why can't we game it? You try. I know I have wasted enough of my last 20 years trying to do so
, with no luck whatsoever
. If you figure something out, you are the only one ever to do it.
Take what you see on your screen today, tomorrow and Friday with a grain of salt. Accept the fact that any expiration is hard to call, and a triple-witch is even harder.
When someone says the market acts poorly given the good
number, remember these words:
Sometimes the last three sessions during expiration week can't be used to judge the action because there is so much hidden unwinding to do
.
And stop blaming the Tiger in the Tank.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund was long Intel. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at
jjcletters@thestreet.com.
