Don't you love an oversold tech tape? Take this IBM (IBM) - Get Report-Dell (DELL) - Get Report deal. I have been over it a dozen times, spending all morning on it. Initially everything went up on this story: Dell, the drives, the semis, the PC makers and the biggest laugh of all, 3Com (COMS) .
But the more you look at the deal, the more you realize that it's a deal that is good for -- and only for -- IBM. In fact, it means less business for every component company, especially the drives and, most important, 3Com, which loses a huge chunk of business.
Me, I want to buy IBM if it comes in. Thirty points off the high, making a gutsy terrific value-added deal, this makes all of the sense in the world. But everything else? All in all, I would rather wait.
Instead, what I want to do is buy the Net. I have been taking some
as people have been knocking AOL off of this
product and there are dribs and drabs of Yahoo! for sale as the company begins its massive explanation of what's going right.
I like to buy what I can when I can. I don't like paying up for something that hasn't changed or has gotten worse or more competitive, a la personal computers. If I have to, I guess I will pay up for IBM, but I am hoping it comes in. I don't have to pay up for the Net, and the Net suits me fine.
Ultimately, my bet is with the bonds. Buying them all morning. But one thing about bonds, I hope I am wrong. I hope tomorrow we get a strong number and the bonds sell off again because one thing is for certain: Even if you believe that stocks don't get cheaper when they go down, you have to believe that bonds do.
Am I betting against myself? No, I just see no inflation -- looking at aluminum collapsing right now -- and tons of bond demand without the same old supply.
And bonds aren't going to preannounce after the close!
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At the time of publication, his fund was long Yahoo! and America Online, though positions may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column by sending an email to firstname.lastname@example.org.