After the huge rally on Thursday in the wake of the
's rate hike, investors are back to worrying about the Fed's next move, said Aaron Task on Jim Cramer's
"RealMoney" radio show Friday.
Task, co-executive editor of
, is filling in for Cramer this week.
The market on Friday was flat, as people are now worried the Fed will have credibility problems if inflationary pressure picks up over the summer and it has to tighten rates again, he said. This is leading to a division in the marketplace, Task said, referring back to Cramer's June 7 show during which he talked about the three camps of investing.
First, there is the hard-landing theory, where people believe the Federal Reserve will take interest rates too high and cause inflation, he had said.
Second, there is the soft-landing thesis, according to which people believe the Fed rates will go up gently until the economy cools. Once it cools, the Fed will be finished raising rates, Cramer had said. In this scenario, earnings in the economy are not destroyed and it does not result in a recession.
A third camp has emerged recently, Cramer had said. In this camp, there is a slowing of the economy, but a speed-up in inflation. In the hard and soft landing theories there is no acceleration of inflation, just a diminution of it, he had said.
"I want to disagree with the third theory,
also known as the stagflation theory," Cramer had said. "Because the only thing that works in the third camp is gold."
On May 12, gold hit $730, and on June 7 it was at $630, Cramer said. This told Cramer the Fed is wrong, because in a stagflation scenario gold should be going higher.
As of June 7, he had said, banks were moving up. This happens in a soft landing. If we were going through or nearing a recession, the banks would be near default.
Gold continued to fall throughout the month of June and was rallying on Friday, and is up big, Task said, adding that Cramer is right and people should keep an eye on the price of gold.
Responding to a listener's email, Task said the stagflation scenario that occurred in the 1970s is less likely to happen today, even though commodity prices are breaking out, because we are more of a service economy than a manufacturing economy, so higher energy prices are not as big of a problem for corporate America today as they were in the 1970s.
"Today, the biggest costs for companies is their employees, which is about 70% of corporate costs," he said.
Also, Task said that the fact that workers are less likely to be in a union today than in the 1970s, combined with the threat of outsourcing making it difficult for employees to ask for more money, make a 1970s stagflation scenariois less likely.
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Aaron L. Task is the co-executive editor of TheStreet.com. In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, he doesn't own or short individual stocks, although he owns stock in TheStreet.com. He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships.
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